Alcohol Consumption & Mortality in the US 1950-2000

酒精消耗

• 批准号: 7337644
• 负责人: William C Kerr
• 金额: $ 29.98万
• 依托单位: PUBLIC HEALTH INSTITUTE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-02-15 至 2009-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7337644
• 关键词: AODR mortality; Accidents; Accounting; Acute; African American; Age; Alcohol consumption; Alcohols; Beer; Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Categories; Cause of Death; Chronic; Cohort Analysis; Confounding Factors (Epidemiology); Consumption; Data; Data Aggregation; Databases; Dependence; Drug abuse; Drug usage; Electronics; Ethanol; Ethnic Origin; Female; Fire - disasters; Gender; Geographic state; Grouping; Heart Diseases; Heavy Drinking; Hispanics; Homicide; Household; Individual; Liver Cirrhosis; Malignant Neoplasms; Measures; Modeling; Myocardial Ischemia; Numbers; Outcome; Outcome Measure; Pancreatitis; Patient Self-Report; Pattern; Policies; Polyneuropathy; Population; Prevalence; Psychotic Disorders; Publishing; Rate; Reporting; Risk; Risk Behaviors; Sales; Series; Smoking; Subcategory; Subgroup; Suicide; Surveys; Testing; Time; United States; Variant; Wine; Work; alcohol content; base; cohort; consumption measures; demographics; drinking; falls; health disparity; improved; indexing; innovation; male; mortality; population survey; statistics; vehicular accident

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This study develops improved data for, and then conducts, a sequence of time-series, fixed and random effects analyses of alcohol-related mortality by cause for the US, individual states, and states grouped into five regions. An innovative feature is the use of more accurately estimated ethanol conversion factors specific to year and state to estimate per capita ethanol consumption from reported wine, beer and spirits sales data. Time series predictors include both these improved estimates of per capita ethanol consumption over a 50-year time span and, for several aims, detailed drinking pattern measures from three population survey series extending over approximately 20 years. Survey data include 5 waves (1979-2000) of the National Alcohol Survey, and the annual state-representative Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys from 1984 to present and the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse surveys, 1985 to 2000. Outcome measures include age-standardized and specific mortality rates for liver cirrhosis, pancreatitis, other alcohol related cancers, heart disease (IHD), all explicitly alcohol-related causes and sub-categories such as psychosis, dependence and polyneuropathy, all external causes and the subcategories of suicide, homicide, all accidents and motor vehicle accidents, and all cause mortality. The study will develop and analyze 50-year time series for most outcomes (a 33-year series for several more specific causes) in Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) models and in pooled time-series models of the US states. A unique feature of this work is that it combines representative population survey data with aggregate data to investigate the effect of drinking patterns in conjunction with per capita consumption. Pattern measures include rates of current drinking, heavy drinking (ever and frequently consuming 5+ drinks per occasion), and concentration of consumption (e.g. the Gini index). A number of confounding variables such as state smoking rates will be controlled. An important additional aim is to use the survey-based drinking measures to characterize consumption patterns of age-, gender-, and ethnicity-based subgroups, specific risk behaviors that cannot be inferred from aggregate consumption data but are identified in mortality statistics. Accounting for variation both in drinking and mortality rates in these subgroup cohort analyses should provide much greater precision in estimating how alcohol consumption influences mortality and is expected to yield new information on health disparities in, and the time course of, alcohol-related mortality for African American and Hispanic populations.

描述（由申请人提供）：本研究通过美国，各个州和分为五个地区的原因，开发了一系列时间序列，固定和随机效应分析的时间序列，固定和随机效应分析。一个创新的特征是使用更准确的估计乙醇转化因子，特定于年份和状态来估算报告的葡萄酒，啤酒和烈酒销售数据的人均乙醇消耗。时间序列的预测因素包括这两种改进的人均乙醇消耗量的估计值，在50年的时间段内，对于几个目标，三个人口调查系列的详细饮酒模式度量在大约20年内延长了。调查数据包括全国酒精调查的5波（1979-2000），以及1984年至今的年度代表性的行为风险因素监视系统监视系统监视系统调查以及1985年至2000年的全国性药物滥用调查调查。结果指标包括年龄标准化和特定的肝脏疾病，胰酒精疾病，心脏病，心脏疾病，心脏，心脏疾病，crance cirrhosis，cirrhosion canscers，cancers，cancers，cancers，心脏病。原因和子类别，例如精神病，依赖性和多神经病，所有外部原因以及自杀，凶杀，所有事故和机动车事故的子类别以及所有导致死亡率。这项研究将在自动回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型以及美国州的合并时间序列模型中开发和分析大多数结果（三个更具体原因的33年序列）的50年时间序列。这项工作的一个独特特征是，它将代表性的人口调查数据与汇总数据结合在一起，以研究饮酒模式与人均消费的影响。模式指标包括当前饮酒率，大量饮酒（每次经常喝5杯）和消费量（例如Gini指数）。将控制许多混杂变量，例如州吸烟率。一个重要的其他目的是使用基于调查的饮酒措施来表征年龄，性别和基于种族的亚组的消费模式，从总消费数据中推断出来的特定风险行为，但在死亡率统计中已确定。考虑这些亚组队列分析中饮酒率和死亡率差异的差异，应在估计酒精消耗如何影响死亡率方面具有更高的精度，并有望产生有关非裔美国人和西班牙裔人群的健康差异以及与酒精相关的死亡率的新信息。