Vulnerability to Health Effects of Wildfires under a Changing Climate in Western

西部气候变化下野火对健康影响的脆弱性

• 批准号: 8266997
• 负责人: Michelle L Bell
• 金额: $ 26.39万
• 依托单位: YALE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-06-01 至 2014-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8266997
• 关键词: Accounting; Admission activity; Affect; Age; Age Factors; Air; Air Pollutants; Air Pollution; Airborne Particulate Matter; Area; Burn injury; California; Cardiovascular Diseases; Characteristics; Chemicals; Chemistry; Climate; Code; Communities; Comorbidity; Data; Data Set; Databases; Disease; Elderly; Environmental Exposure; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologic Studies; Equipment and supply inventories; Exposure to; Fire - disasters; Foundations; Future; Geographic Locations; Health; Hospitalization; Hospitals; Human; Individual; Intervention; Lead; Link; Literature; Low income; Lung diseases; Maps; Medicare; Methods; Minority; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Older Population; Outcome; Persons; Population; Property; Public Health; Race; Reporting; Research; Resolution; Resource Allocation; Resources; Risk; Risk Estimate; Science; Services; Severities; Smoke; Socioeconomic Status; Source; Statistical Methods; Statistical Models; Uncertainty; Unemployment; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Weather; Wildfire; base; climate change; design; forest; high risk; novel strategies; pollutant; response; sex; trafficking

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that climate change will likely increase forest fire severity, with fires that bur more intensely and spread more rapidly. NIH identified climate change and forest fires as a critical research need. According to the U.S. Forest Service, fire risk has already increased. Several studies suggest that forest fires affects health; however, the true health burden is unknown as no large- scale studies have been conducted. Current research is limited in scope and methods to estimate exposure to fire smoke. Scientific literature on ambient air pollutants indicates that some populations are more vulnerable than others to health responses. We hypothesize that some populations are more vulnerable to health impacts of forest fires under a changing climate. To estimate this vulnerability, new data and methods are needed. We propose to develop the necessary databases and methods so we can investigate the vulnerability to hospital admissions from forest fires in the western United States. In Aim 1 (exposure estimation), we will develop a new approach to integrate a chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, with state-of-the-science forest fire emission inventories to estimate the contribution of forest fires to airborne particulate matter (PM). Our method generates daily, gridded estimates of PM2.5 from forest fire smoke and PM2.5 from other pollutant sources. In Aim 2 (risk estimation) we will develop a data set that links information on weather conditions, individual-level data on hospital admissions and co-morbidities, and community factors (e.g., unemployment) at the zip-code level with PM2.5 from forest fires. We will develop statistical models for estimating the association between exposure to forest fire smoke and risk of hospitalizations for persons >65 years. In this aim, we identify which populations are most vulnerable with respect to individual factors (age, race, sex, pre- existing conditions), region, community factors (e.g., unemployment) and environmental factors (e.g., weather). In Aim 3 (exposure and risk prediction through 2050), we will use the approach developed in Aim 1 and climate model projections to predict future area burned and forest fire emissions through 2050. These estimates will be used with chemical transport modeling to estimate future forest fire exposures. We will then use the approach developed in Aim 2 to predict the change in risk of hospitalizations, by vulnerability, under a changing climate accounting for the many sources of uncertainty in exposure and risk estimation. This study would advance understanding of how forest fires affect health in the present day and which populations are most vulnerable, and of how climate change could impact forest fires and thereby health and related vulnerabilities. Our findings would benefit efforts to manage forest fires, allow more targeted public health interventions, and aid effective allocation of resources, which is particularly important given the increased risk under climate change. The databases and methods developed would provide the research framework for studies of other environmental exposures, health outcomes, and climate change scenarios. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed research would investigate our hypothesis that some populations are more vulnerable to health impacts of forest fires under a changing climate. Our findings would benefit efforts to manage forest fires, allow more targeted public health interventions, and aid effective allocation of resources, which is particularly important given the increased risk under climate change. The databases and methods developed would provide the research framework for studies of other environmental exposures, health outcomes, and climate change scenarios.

描述（由申请人提供）：政府间气候变化（IPCC）的结论得出的结论是，气候变化可能会增加森林火灾的严重性，而火灾更加强烈，更迅速地传播。 NIH确定气候变化和森林大火是一项批判性研究的需求。根据美国森林服务局的说法，火灾风险已经增加。几项研究表明，森林大火会影响健康。但是，由于没有进行大规模研究，因此真正的健康负担是未知的。当前的研究范围和估计暴露于火烟的方法的范围有限。关于环境空气污染物的科学文献表明，某些人群比其他人对健康反应更容易受到伤害。我们假设某些人群在不断变化的气候下更容易受到森林大火影响的影响。为了估算此漏洞，需要新的数据和方法。我们建议开发必要的数据库和方法，以便我们可以调查美国西部森林大火入院的脆弱性。在AIM 1（暴露估算）中，我们将开发一种新的方法，将化学传输模型Geos-Chem与科学森林火灾排放清单进行整合，以估算森林火灾对空中颗粒物（PM）的贡献。我们的方法每天从森林火烟雾中产生PM2.5的每日栅格估计，以及其他污染物来源的PM2.5。在AIM 2（风险估算）中，我们将开发一个数据集，该数据集将有关天气状况，医院入院和合并症的个人级别数据以及在ZIP代码级别的社区因素（例如失业）与PM2.5与森林火灾的PM2.5联系起来。我们将开发统计模型，以估计接触森林烟雾的暴露与65岁以上的住院风险之间的关联。在此目标中，我们确定哪些人群在个体因素（年龄，种族，性别，现有状况），地区，社区因素（例如失业）和环境因素（例如天气）方面最容易受到伤害。在AIM 3（到2050年至2050年的风险预测）中，我们将使用AIM 1和气候模型预测中开发的方法来预测到2050年至2050年的未来燃烧区域和森林火灾排放。这些估计将用于化学运输模型来估计未来的森林火灾暴露。然后，我们将使用AIM 2中开发的方法来预测住院风险的变化，脆弱性，在气候不断变化的情况下，这是对暴露和风险估计的许多不确定性来源的考虑。这项研究将进一步了解当今森林火灾如何影响健康，哪些人口最脆弱，以及气候变化如何影响森林大火，从而影响健康及相关脆弱性。我们的发现将有益于管理森林大火，允许更多有针对性的公共卫生干预措施以及有效分配资源的努力，这一点尤其重要 在气候变化下的风险增加。开发的数据库和方法将为研究其他环境暴露，健康结果和气候变化方案提供研究框架。 公共卫生相关性：拟议的研究将调查我们的假设，即某些人群在不断变化的气候下更容易受到森林大火影响的影响。我们的发现将有益于管理森林大火，允许更多有针对性的公共卫生干预措施以及有效分配资源的努力，考虑到气候变化下的风险增加，这一点尤其重要。开发的数据库和方法将为研究其他环境暴露，健康结果和气候变化方案提供研究框架。