Vulnerability to Health Effects of Wildfires under a Changing Climate in Western

西部气候变化下野火对健康影响的脆弱性

• 批准号: 8471704
• 负责人: Michelle L Bell
• 金额: $ 20.26万
• 依托单位: YALE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-06-01 至 2015-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8471704
• 关键词: Accounting; Admission activity; Affect; Age; Age Factors; Air; Air Pollutants; Air Pollution; Airborne Particulate Matter; Area; Burn injury; California; Cardiovascular Diseases; Characteristics; Chemicals; Chemistry; Climate; Code; Communities; Comorbidity; Data; Data Set; Databases; Disease; Elderly; Environmental Exposure; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologic Studies; Equipment and supply inventories; Exposure to; Fire - disasters; Foundations; Future; Geographic Locations; Health; Hospitalization; Hospitals; Human; Individual; Intervention; Lead; Link; Literature; Low income; Lung diseases; Maps; Medicare; Methods; Minority; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Older Population; Outcome; Persons; Population; Property; Public Health; Race; Reporting; Research; Resolution; Resource Allocation; Resources; Risk; Risk Estimate; Science; Services; Severities; Smoke; Socioeconomic Status; Source; Statistical Methods; Statistical Models; Uncertainty; Unemployment; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Weather; Wildfire; base; climate change; design; forest; high risk; novel strategies; pollutant; response; sex; trafficking

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that climate change will likely increase forest fire severity, with fires that bur more intensely and spread more rapidly. NIH identified climate change and forest fires as a critical research need. According to the U.S. Forest Service, fire risk has already increased. Several studies suggest that forest fires affects health; however, the true health burden is unknown as no large- scale studies have been conducted. Current research is limited in scope and methods to estimate exposure to fire smoke. Scientific literature on ambient air pollutants indicates that some populations are more vulnerable than others to health responses. We hypothesize that some populations are more vulnerable to health impacts of forest fires under a changing climate. To estimate this vulnerability, new data and methods are needed. We propose to develop the necessary databases and methods so we can investigate the vulnerability to hospital admissions from forest fires in the western United States. In Aim 1 (exposure estimation), we will develop a new approach to integrate a chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, with state-of-the-science forest fire emission inventories to estimate the contribution of forest fires to airborne particulate matter (PM). Our method generates daily, gridded estimates of PM2.5 from forest fire smoke and PM2.5 from other pollutant sources. In Aim 2 (risk estimation) we will develop a data set that links information on weather conditions, individual-level data on hospital admissions and co-morbidities, and community factors (e.g., unemployment) at the zip-code level with PM2.5 from forest fires. We will develop statistical models for estimating the association between exposure to forest fire smoke and risk of hospitalizations for persons >65 years. In this aim, we identify which populations are most vulnerable with respect to individual factors (age, race, sex, pre- existing conditions), region, community factors (e.g., unemployment) and environmental factors (e.g., weather). In Aim 3 (exposure and risk prediction through 2050), we will use the approach developed in Aim 1 and climate model projections to predict future area burned and forest fire emissions through 2050. These estimates will be used with chemical transport modeling to estimate future forest fire exposures. We will then use the approach developed in Aim 2 to predict the change in risk of hospitalizations, by vulnerability, under a changing climate accounting for the many sources of uncertainty in exposure and risk estimation. This study would advance understanding of how forest fires affect health in the present day and which populations are most vulnerable, and of how climate change could impact forest fires and thereby health and related vulnerabilities. Our findings would benefit efforts to manage forest fires, allow more targeted public health interventions, and aid effective allocation of resources, which is particularly important given the increased risk under climate change. The databases and methods developed would provide the research framework for studies of other environmental exposures, health outcomes, and climate change scenarios.

政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）得出结论，气候变化可能会增加森林火灾的严重性，火灾燃烧更强烈，蔓延更快。NIH将气候变化和森林火灾确定为关键的研究需求。据美国林务局称，火灾风险已经增加。一些研究表明，森林火灾影响健康;然而，由于没有进行大规模研究，因此不知道真正的健康负担。目前的研究在估计火灾烟雾暴露的范围和方法上都很有限。关于环境空气污染物的科学文献表明，某些人群比其他人群更容易受到健康反应的影响。我们假设，在气候变化的情况下，一些人群更容易受到森林火灾的健康影响。为了估计这种脆弱性，需要新的数据和方法。我们建议开发必要的数据库和方法，这样我们就可以调查美国西部森林火灾入院的脆弱性。在目标1（暴露估计）中，我们将开发一种新的方法，将化学传输模型GEOS-Chem与科学水平的森林火灾排放清单相结合，以估计森林火灾对空气中颗粒物（PM）的贡献。我们的方法每天生成来自森林火灾烟雾的PM2.5和来自其他污染物来源的PM2.5的网格估计值。在目标2（风险估计）中，我们将开发一个数据集，将天气条件、住院和合并症的个人水平数据以及社区因素（例如，失业）与森林火灾产生的PM2.5。我们将开发统计模型，用于估计暴露于森林火灾烟雾与65岁以上人群住院风险之间的关联。在这一目标中，我们根据个人因素（年龄、种族、性别、先前存在的状况）、地区、社区因素（例如，失业）和环境因素（例如，天气）。在目标3（到2050年的暴露和风险预测）中，我们将使用目标1中开发的方法和气候模型预测来预测到2050年的未来燃烧面积和森林火灾排放。这些估计将与化学传输模型一起用于估计未来的森林火灾风险。然后，我们将使用目标2中开发的方法来预测住院风险的变化，脆弱性，在不断变化的气候下，暴露和风险估计的许多不确定性来源。这项研究将进一步了解当今森林火灾如何影响健康，哪些人群最脆弱，以及气候变化如何影响森林火灾，从而影响健康和相关脆弱性。我们的研究结果将有助于管理森林火灾，允许更有针对性的公共卫生干预措施，并帮助有效分配资源，这一点特别重要，因为 气候变化下的风险增加。开发的数据库和方法将为其他环境暴露、健康后果和气候变化情景的研究提供研究框架。

项目成果

A systematic review of the physical health impacts from non-occupational exposure to wildfire smoke.

对身体健康的系统综述会影响非占领暴露于野火烟雾。

• DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2014.10.015
• 发表时间: 2015-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
• 影响因子: 8.3
• 作者: Liu, Jia C.;Pereira, Gavin;Uhl, Sarah A.;Bravo, Mercedes A.;Bell, Michelle L.
• 通讯作者: Bell, Michelle L.

Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-21st century.

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2022-3
• 发表时间: 2014-10-01
• 期刊: Climate dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Yue X;Mickley LJ;Logan JA
• 通讯作者: Logan JA

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.06.003
• 发表时间: 2013-10-01
• 期刊: ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Yue, Xu;Mickley, Loretta J.;Logan, Jennifer A.;Kaplan, Jed O.
• 通讯作者: Kaplan, Jed O.

Estimating the health effects of environmental mixtures using principal stratification.

• DOI: 10.1002/sim.9330
• 发表时间: 2022-05-10
• 期刊: STATISTICS IN MEDICINE
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Peng, Roger D.;Liu, Jia C.;McCormack, Meredith C.;Mickley, Loretta J.;Bell, Michelle L.
• 通讯作者: Bell, Michelle L.