Transmission dynamics and spillover of avian influenza under changing agricultura

农业变革下禽流感的传播动态和溢出

• 批准号: 8505811
• 负责人: Xiangming Xiao
• 金额: $ 50.35万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-07-23 至 2017-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8505811
• 关键词: Accounting; Affect; Africa; Agriculture; Animals; Area; Asia; Avian Influenza; Avian Influenza A Virus; Belgium; Birds; China; Collaborations; Complex; Country; Data; Data Collection; Development; Disease; Disease Management; Domestic Fowls; Ecology; Effectiveness; Environment; Epidemic; Epidemiology; Family suidae; Farming environment; Ferrets; Goals; Habitats; Health Policy; Human; Hybrids; Individual; Infection; Influenza; Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype; International; Intervention; Laboratories; Livestock; Mammals; Marketing; Mathematics; Measures; Methodology; Mission; Modeling; Movement; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; Occupational Exposure; Output; Pattern; Policies; Policy Making; Population; Practice Management; Process; Production; Province; Public Health; Questionnaires; Readiness; Recording of previous events; Risk; Sampling; Serum; Spatial Distribution; Statistical Models; Structure; Surveys; Techniques; Technology; Telemetry; Thailand; United States National Institutes of Health; Vaccination; Virulence; Virus; Water; Work; base; biosecurity; density; disease transmission; disorder control; domestic bird; flu transmission; improved; influenza epidemic; influenzavirus; mathematical model; public health relevance; response; transmission process; volunteer; wild bird

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 persists in a number of countries in Asia and Africa, and continues to evolve in wild birds, domestic poultry and humans. Recent laboratory results have shown that re-assortment between HPAI H5N1 and human H3N2 influenza virus may result in a hybrid virus with substantial virulence. The spillover of avian influenza at the human-animal interface is a major public health concern. The long-term goal of this proposed study is to improve our capability to predict the dynamics and spillover risk of avian influenza at the human - animal interface and to improve risk-based influenza surveillance, preparedness, responses, intervention, and public health policy making. Rapidly changing agricultural intensification, landscapes and markets over the past few decades have resulted in significant changes in the size and spatial distribution of poultry and pig farms as well as their connectivity between farms, which affect the dynamics and spillover of avian influenza at the human- animal interface. This proposed project is centered on three specific aims: (1) to quantify avian influenza transmission dynamics between multiple poultry farms accounting for different farm sizes, management practices and different structures of network connectivity; (2) to quantify the spillover risk of avian influenzaat the human - poultry - wild bird interface, and evaluate occupational exposure risk of workers in poultry and pig farms; and (3) to assess the effectiveness of various scenarios and intervention measures for disease control and management. This project will use advanced geospatial technology to collect data relevant to poultry farms, poultry and wild bird movement, and connectivity between farms in Poyang Lake, China and Thailand. It will also conduct questionnaire surveys and serum samples of people who work on poultry and pig farms. Finally, a suite of mathematical, statistical and agent-based models will be developed and used to assess the effectiveness of various scenarios and intervention measures on avian influenza transmission and spread. Whilst this proposal is focused on HPAI H5N1, the results and methodology would apply to other influenza viruses, and some of the outputs and modeling approaches will also be relevant to other diseases emerging in response to fast change in the agricultural sector and landscapes. The project will further strengthen the international collaboration amongst the USA, China, Thailand, UK and Belgium in the area of disease ecology and public health, which will make a significant contribution to the mission of the NIH and NIAID.

描述（由申请人提供）：高致病性禽流感（HPAI）亚型 H5N1 在亚洲和非洲的许多国家持续存在，并继续在野生鸟类、家禽和人类中进化。最近的实验室结果表明，HPAI H5N1 和人类 H3N2 流感病毒之间的重新分类可能会产生具有显着毒力的混合病毒。禽流感在人与动物之间的传播是一个主要的公共卫生问题。这项拟议研究的长期目标是提高我们预测人-动物界面禽流感动态和溢出风险的能力，并改善基于风险的流感监测、准备、应对、干预和公共卫生政策制定。 过去几十年来，农业集约化、景观和市场的快速变化导致家禽和养猪场的规模和空间分布以及农场之间的连通性发生了重大变化，从而影响了农业生产。 禽流感在人-动物界面的动态和溢出。该拟议项目围绕三个具体目标：（1）量化多个家禽养殖场之间的禽流感传播动态，考虑不同的农场规模、管理实践和不同的网络连接结构； （2）量化人-禽-野鸟界面禽流感的溢出风险，评估家禽、养猪场工作人员的职业暴露风险； (3) 评估疾病控制和管理的各种情景和干预措施的有效性。 该项目将利用先进的地理空间技术收集有关家禽养殖场、家禽和野鸟运动以及中国和泰国鄱阳湖养殖场之间连通性的数据。它还将对家禽和养猪场的工作人员进行问卷调查和血清样本采集。最后，将开发一套数学、统计和基于主体的模型，并用于评估各种情景和干预措施对禽流感传播和传播的有效性。 虽然该提案的重点是 HPAI H5N1，但结果和方法将适用于其他流感病毒，并且一些输出和建模方法也将与因农业部门和景观的快速变化而出现的其他疾病相关。 该项目将进一步加强美国、中国、泰国、英国和比利时在疾病生态学和公共卫生领域的国际合作，这将为NIH和NIAID的使命做出重大贡献。