Ecology-Based Risk Assessment and Early Warning for HPAI in Asia

亚洲高致病性禽流感基于生态学的风险评估和预警

• 批准号: 7907328
• 负责人: Xiangming Xiao
• 金额: $ 24万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2012-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7907328
• 关键词: Agriculture; Asia; Avian Influenza; Avian Influenza A Virus; Biochemical; Blood Circulation; Businesses; Calendar; Cessation of life; Communicable Diseases; Country; Data Set; Disease Outbreaks; Domestic Fowls; Ecology; Education; Environment; Epidemiology; Goals; Hot Spot; Human; In Situ; Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype; International; Internet; Irrigation; Link; Location; Maps; Mutation; Public Health; Readiness; Research; Research Personnel; Resolution; Risk; Risk Assessment; Science; Scientist; Southeastern Asia; Students; Surface; System; Systems Integration; Temperature; Time; Update; base; data modeling; epidemiological model; experience; improved; next generation; pandemic disease; pandemic influenza; remote sensing; wild bird

Since late 2003 several East and Southeast Asia countries have experienced large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI, subtype H5N1), or bird flu. By April 6, 2006, HPAI outbreaks occurred in 45 countries, 3 continents, with a total of 192human cases (109 deaths). Widespread circulation of the avian flu virus also increases the chances of mutation into a form that could pass from human to human, which could result in a new human flu pandemic of unknown magnitude. At present, the efforts in risk assessment early warning of HPAI are to large degree hampered by (i) the lack of comprehensive understanding of the ecology of avian influenza, particularly in relation to agricultural systems, poultry, wild birds, biophysical and biochemical environments, and (ii) the facts that geospatial datasets used for risk assessment and early warning are often out-of-date and at coarse spatial (e.g., national or provincial) and temporal (e.g., at annual) resolutions. This interdisciplinary and international project combines epidemiology, ornithology, agriculture and environmental remote sensing. Its overall goal is threefold: (a) to better understand the ecology of HPAI in Asia; (b) to develop a data-model integration system that could identify "hot spots" (location-varying risk) and "hot times" (time-varying risk) of HPAI in Asia, and (c) to provide near-real-time ecology-based risk assessment and early warning of HPAI in 2007-2009 for Asia. Specifically, it will (1) provide updated and improved geospatial datasets of HPAI-relevant ecological factors, includingmigration flyways and timing of wild waterfowls, agricultural systems (cropping intensity, crop calendar, and irrigation), seasonaliry of wetlands, and biophysical variables (e.g., land surface temperature) at moderate spatial resolution (500-m to 1-km); (2) quantify the relationships between HPAI and ecological variables; (3) develop a GIS-based epidemiological model; and (4) develop an internet-based geospatial web system (primarily through linking GoogleEarth with research-oriented websites, e.g., http://remotesensing.unh.edu')for distributed mapping and timely distribution of HPAI-relevant information. This project employs remote sensing and GIS/GPS, in-situ observations, epidemiological models, and internettechnology. This interdisciplinary project will make significant contribution to the ecology of infectious diseases and public health. The resultant dynamic maps of "hot spots" and "hot times" of HPAI risk regions, when distributed in a timely fashion, will aid the public, researchers, business, and decision makers in preparedness of potential HPAI pandemic crisis. This project will also provide interdisciplinary education for next- generation scientists (both graduate and undergraduate students) in epidemiology, ornithology, public health and Earth system science.

自2003年底以来，东亚和东南亚的几个国家经历了大规模的高致病性禽流感暴发。 致病性禽流感（HPAI，H5 N1亚型）或禽流感。到2006年4月6日， 在三大洲的45个国家，共有192例人间病例（109例死亡）。广泛流传的 禽流感病毒也增加了变异成可以在人与人之间传播的形式的机会， 这可能会导致一场规模未知的新的人类流感大流行。目前，在风险 高致病性禽流感的评估预警在很大程度上受到以下因素的阻碍：（i）缺乏全面的 了解禽流感的生态学，特别是与农业系统、家禽、野生 鸟类，生物物理和生物化学环境，以及（ii）地理空间数据集用于风险评估的事实 评估和早期警报通常是过时的并且处于粗略的空间（例如，国家或省）和 时间（例如，年度决议。 这个跨学科的国际项目结合了流行病学，鸟类学，农业和 环境遥感其总体目标有三个方面：（a）更好地了解高致病性禽流感在 亚洲;（B）开发一个数据模型整合系统，以确定“热点”（地点不同的风险） 和亚洲高致病性禽流感的“热时期”（随时间变化的风险），以及（c）提供近实时的基于生态的风险 2007-2009年亚洲高致病性禽流感的评估和预警。具体而言，它将（1）提供最新和 改进了HPAI相关生态因素的地理空间数据集，包括迁移飞行路线和时间 野生水禽，农业系统（种植强度，作物日历和灌溉），季节性 湿地和生物物理变量（例如，陆地表面温度），以中等空间分辨率（500米至 1公里）;（2）量化HPAI与生态变量之间的关系;（3）开发基于GIS的 流行病学模型;以及（4）开发一个基于互联网的地理空间网络系统（主要通过链接 GoogleEarth与研究型网站，例如，http://remotesensing.unh.edu“）进行分布式映射， 及时发布HPAI相关信息。该项目采用遥感和地理信息系统/全球定位系统， 观察、流行病学模型和互联网技术。 这个跨学科项目将对传染病生态学做出重大贡献， 公共卫生由此产生的高致病性禽流感风险区域的“热点”和“热点时间”的动态图， 及时分发，将有助于公众、研究人员、企业和决策者做好准备 潜在的高致病性禽流感大流行危机。该项目还将为未来提供跨学科的教育- 流行病学、鸟类学、公共卫生领域的一代科学家（包括研究生和本科生） 地球系统科学