Transmission dynamics and spillover of avian influenza under changing agricultura

描述（由申请方提供）：高致病性禽流感（HPAI）亚型H5 N1在亚洲和非洲的一些国家持续存在，并在野鸟、家禽和人类中继续演变。最近的实验室结果显示，高致病性禽流感病毒H5 N1和人类H3 N2流感病毒之间的重组可能会产生一种具有相当毒力的杂交病毒。禽流感在人与动物之间的传播是一个重大的公共卫生问题。这项拟议研究的长期目标是提高我们预测禽流感在人-动物界面的动态和溢出风险的能力，并改善基于风险的流感监测、准备、应对、干预和公共卫生政策制定。 在过去几十年中，农业集约化、景观和市场的快速变化导致家禽和养猪场的规模和空间分布以及农场之间的连通性发生了重大变化，这影响了农业的发展。 禽流感在人与动物接触面的动态和蔓延。本项目主要有三个具体目标：（1）量化不同规模、不同管理方式和不同网络连接结构的多个家禽养殖场之间的禽流感传播动态;（2）量化禽流感在人-禽-野鸟界面的溢出风险，并评估家禽和养猪场工人的职业暴露风险;（3）量化人-禽-野鸟界面的禽流感传播风险。及（3）评估各种疾病控制及管理方案及干预措施的成效。 该项目将利用先进的地理空间技术收集与家禽养殖场、家禽和野生鸟类活动以及中国鄱阳湖和泰国农场之间的连通性有关的数据。此外，中心亦会向在家禽及猪场工作的人士进行问卷调查及抽取血清样本。最后，将开发一套数学、统计和基于代理人的模型，用于评估各种情景和干预措施对禽流感传播和蔓延的有效性。 虽然这项建议的重点是高致病性禽流感H5 N1，结果和方法将适用于其他流感病毒，和一些输出和建模方法也将是相关的其他疾病出现在应对快速变化的农业部门和景观。 该项目将进一步加强美国、中国、泰国、英国和比利时在疾病生态学和公共卫生领域的国际合作，为NIH和NIAID的使命做出重大贡献。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 persists in a number of countries in Asia and Africa, and continues to evolve in wild birds, domestic poultry and humans. Recent laboratory results have shown that re-assortment between HPAI H5N1 and human H3N2 influenza virus may result in a hybrid virus with substantial virulence. The spillover of avian influenza at the human-animal interface is a major public health concern. The long-term goal of this proposed study is to improve our capability to predict the dynamics and spillover risk of avian influenza at the human - animal interface and to improve risk-based influenza surveillance, preparedness, responses, intervention, and public health policy making. Rapidly changing agricultural intensification, landscapes and markets over the past few decades have resulted in significant changes in the size and spatial distribution of poultry and pig farms as well as their connectivity between farms, which affect the dynamics and spillover of avian influenza at the human- animal interface. This proposed project is centered on three specific aims: (1) to quantify avian influenza transmission dynamics between multiple poultry farms accounting for different farm sizes, management practices and different structures of network connectivity; (2) to quantify the spillover risk of avian influenzaat the human - poultry - wild bird interface, and evaluate occupational exposure risk of workers in poultry and pig farms; and (3) to assess the effectiveness of various scenarios and intervention measures for disease control and management. This project will use advanced geospatial technology to collect data relevant to poultry farms, poultry and wild bird movement, and connectivity between farms in Poyang Lake, China and Thailand. It will also conduct questionnaire surveys and serum samples of people who work on poultry and pig farms. Finally, a suite of mathematical, statistical and agent-based models will be developed and used to assess the effectiveness of various scenarios and intervention measures on avian influenza transmission and spread. Whilst this proposal is focused on HPAI H5N1, the results and methodology would apply to other influenza viruses, and some of the outputs and modeling approaches will also be relevant to other diseases emerging in response to fast change in the agricultural sector and landscapes. The project will further strengthen the international collaboration amongst the USA, China, Thailand, UK and Belgium in the area of disease ecology and public health, which will make a significant contribution to the mission of the NIH and NIAID.