Transmission dynamics and spillover of avian influenza under changing agricultura

描述(申请人提供)：高致病性禽流感(HPAI)亚型H5N1在亚洲和非洲的一些国家持续存在，并在野鸟、家禽和人类中继续进化。最近的实验室结果表明，HPAI H5N1和人H3N2型流感病毒之间的重新分类可能会导致一种具有强大毒力的混合病毒。禽流感在人与动物的界面上的溢出是一个主要的公共卫生问题。这项拟议研究的长期目标是提高我们预测禽流感在人-动物界面上的动态和溢出风险的能力，并改进基于风险的流感监测、准备、应对、干预和公共卫生政策制定。过去几十年迅速变化的农业集约化、景观和市场导致家禽养殖场和养猪场的规模和空间分布以及养猪场之间的联系发生了重大变化，这影响了 禽流感在人-动物界面的动态和溢出效应。这项拟议项目围绕三个具体目标：(1)量化多个家禽养殖场之间的禽流感传播动态，以应对不同的养殖场规模、管理做法和不同的网络结构；(2)量化禽流感的溢出风险；(3)评估禽流感在人-家禽-野鸟界面的溢出风险，并评估家禽和养猪场工作人员的职业暴露风险；以及(3)评估各种情景和干预措施在疾病控制和管理方面的有效性。该项目将使用先进的地理空间技术来收集与家禽养殖场、家禽和野鸟活动相关的数据，以及鄱阳湖、中国和泰国农场之间的连接。它还将对家禽和养猪场工作人员进行问卷调查和血清样本。最后，将开发一套数学、统计和以代理人为基础的模型，并用于评估各种情景和干预措施对禽流感传播和传播的有效性。虽然这项提案侧重于HPAI H5N1，但结果和方法将适用于其他流感病毒，一些产出和建模方法也将与应对农业部门和地貌快速变化而出现的其他疾病相关。该项目将进一步加强美国、中国、泰国、英国和比利时在疾病生态和公共卫生领域的国际合作，这将为国家卫生研究院和国家国际开发署的使命做出重大贡献。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 persists in a number of countries in Asia and Africa, and continues to evolve in wild birds, domestic poultry and humans. Recent laboratory results have shown that re-assortment between HPAI H5N1 and human H3N2 influenza virus may result in a hybrid virus with substantial virulence. The spillover of avian influenza at the human-animal interface is a major public health concern. The long-term goal of this proposed study is to improve our capability to predict the dynamics and spillover risk of avian influenza at the human - animal interface and to improve risk-based influenza surveillance, preparedness, responses, intervention, and public health policy making. Rapidly changing agricultural intensification, landscapes and markets over the past few decades have resulted in significant changes in the size and spatial distribution of poultry and pig farms as well as their connectivity between farms, which affect the dynamics and spillover of avian influenza at the human- animal interface. This proposed project is centered on three specific aims: (1) to quantify avian influenza transmission dynamics between multiple poultry farms accounting for different farm sizes, management practices and different structures of network connectivity; (2) to quantify the spillover risk of avian influenzaat the human - poultry - wild bird interface, and evaluate occupational exposure risk of workers in poultry and pig farms; and (3) to assess the effectiveness of various scenarios and intervention measures for disease control and management. This project will use advanced geospatial technology to collect data relevant to poultry farms, poultry and wild bird movement, and connectivity between farms in Poyang Lake, China and Thailand. It will also conduct questionnaire surveys and serum samples of people who work on poultry and pig farms. Finally, a suite of mathematical, statistical and agent-based models will be developed and used to assess the effectiveness of various scenarios and intervention measures on avian influenza transmission and spread. Whilst this proposal is focused on HPAI H5N1, the results and methodology would apply to other influenza viruses, and some of the outputs and modeling approaches will also be relevant to other diseases emerging in response to fast change in the agricultural sector and landscapes. The project will further strengthen the international collaboration amongst the USA, China, Thailand, UK and Belgium in the area of disease ecology and public health, which will make a significant contribution to the mission of the NIH and NIAID.