Ecology-Based Risk Assessment and Early Warning for HPAI in Asia

亚洲高致病性禽流感基于生态学的风险评估和预警

• 批准号: 7254470
• 负责人: Xiangming Xiao
• 金额: $ 39.7万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-09-15 至 2010-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7254470
• 关键词: Asia; Internet; disease outbreaks; ecology; epidemiology; human; model; public health

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Since late 2003 several East and Southeast Asia countries have experienced large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI, subtype H5N1), or bird flu. By April 6, 2006, HPAI outbreaks occurred in 45 countries, 3 continents, with a total of 192 human cases (109 deaths). Widespread circulation of the avian flu virus also increases the chances of mutation into a form that could pass from human to human, which could result in a new human flu pandemic of unknown magnitude. At present, the efforts in risk assessment early warning of HPAI are to large degree hampered by (i) the lack of comprehensive understanding of the ecology of avian influenza, particularly in relation to agricultural systems, poultry, wild birds, biophysical and biochemical environments, and (ii) the facts that geospatial datasets used for risk assessment and early warning are often out-of-date and at coarse spatial (e.g., national or provincial) and temporal (e.g., at annual) resolutions. This interdisciplinary and international project combines epidemiology, ornithology, agriculture and environmental remote sensing. Its overall goal is threefold: (a) to better understand the ecology of HPAI in Asia; (b) to develop a data-model integration system that could identify "hot spots" (location-varying risk) and "hot times" (time-varying risk) of HPAI in Asia, and (c) to provide near-real-time ecology-based risk assessment and early warning of HPAI in 2007-2009 for Asia. Specifically, it will (1) provide updated and improved geospatial datasets of HPAI-relevant ecological factors, including migration flyways and timing of wild waterfowls, agricultural systems (cropping intensity, crop calendar, and irrigation), seasonality of wetlands, and biophysical variables (e.g., land surface temperature) at moderate spatial resolution (500-m to 1-km); (2) quantify the relationships between HPAI and ecological variables; (3) develop a GIS-based epidemiological model; and (4) develop an internet-based geospatial web system (primarily through linking GoogleEarth with research-oriented websites, e.g., http://remotesensing.unh.edu') for distributed mapping and timely distribution of HPAI-relevant information. This project employs remote sensing and GIS/GPS, in-situ observations, epidemiological models, and internet technology. This interdisciplinary project will make significant contribution to the ecology of infectious diseases and public health. The resultant dynamic maps of "hot spots" and "hot times" of HPAI risk regions, when distributed in a timely fashion, will aid the public, researchers, business, and decision makers in preparedness of potential HPAI pandemic crisis. This project will also provide interdisciplinary education for next generation scientists (both graduate and undergraduate students) in epidemiology, ornithology, public health and Earth system science.

描述（由申请人提供）：自2003年底以来，东亚和东南亚的几个国家经历了高致病性禽流感（HPAI，H5 N1亚型）或禽流感的大规模爆发。截至2006年4月6日，高致病性禽流感在3大洲45个国家爆发，共有192例人间病例（109例死亡）。禽流感病毒的广泛传播也增加了变异成一种可以在人与人之间传播的形式的机会，这可能导致一场规模未知的新的人类流感大流行。目前，高致病性禽流感的风险评估预警工作在很大程度上受到以下因素的阻碍：（i）缺乏对禽流感生态学的全面了解，特别是与农业系统、家禽、野生鸟类、生物物理和生物化学环境有关的生态学，以及（ii）用于风险评估和预警的地理空间数据集经常过时且空间粗糙（例如，国家的或省的）和时间的（例如，年度决议。这个跨学科的国际项目结合了流行病学、鸟类学、农业和环境遥感。其总体目标有三个方面：（a）更深入了解亚洲高致病性禽流感的生态;（B）开发一个数据模型整合系统，以识别亚洲高致病性禽流感的“热点”（随地点变化的风险）和“热点时间”（随时间变化的风险）;以及（c）在2007-2009年期间，为亚洲提供接近实时的高致病性禽流感生态风险评估和预警。具体而言，它将（1）提供更新和改进的HPAI相关生态因素的地理空间数据集，包括野生水禽的迁徙路线和时间，农业系统（种植强度，作物日历和灌溉），湿地的季节性和生物物理变量（例如，陆地表面温度）;（2）量化高致病性禽流感与生态变量之间的关系;（3）开发基于地理信息系统的流行病学模型;（4）开发基于互联网的地理空间网络系统（主要通过将GoogleEarth与面向研究的网站连接起来，http://remotesensing.unh.edu“），用于分布式映射和HPAI相关信息的及时分发。该项目采用遥感和地理信息系统/全球定位系统、现场观测、流行病学模型和互联网技术。这一跨学科项目将对传染病生态学和公共卫生做出重大贡献。由此产生的高致病性禽流感风险区域的“热点”和“热点时间”的动态地图，当以及时的方式分发时，将帮助公众、研究人员、企业和决策者准备潜在的高致病性禽流感大流行危机。该项目还将为下一代科学家（研究生和本科生）提供流行病学、鸟类学、公共卫生和地球系统科学方面的跨学科教育。