IS YOUTH DRINKING SENSITIVE TO PRICE? EVIDENCE FROM RECENT LARGE TAX CHANGES

描述（由申请人提供）：青年饮酒量是否会对税收引起的酒精价格变化做出反应？以前使用最可靠的固定效应方法的经济学研究尚未就这一基本问题达成共识，尽管税收引起的价格上涨可能会减少一系列与酒精相关的危害（如死亡率，发病率，犯罪和危险的性行为），如果青少年饮酒确实是价格反应。该项目将利用各州在过去十年中最近采取的几项重大税收变化来解决以前研究的统计局限性，这些研究依赖于酒精消费税的罕见和小幅增加，以确定青年饮酒与税收引起的价格变化之间的关系。在这样做时，我们将提供直接证据，证明消费税作为减少青年饮酒不良后果的战略可能有效。 公共卫生相关性：据估计，未成年人饮酒每年以交通事故、急诊室就诊和犯罪的形式给社会造成超过500亿美元的损失。青少年饮酒 可能会通过增加酒精税来减少，但以前对这个问题的研究有限。该项目将提供新的证据，说明消费税对减少青年饮酒和相关危害的作用，方法是利用2002年以来为应对国家预算短缺而采取的多次大幅增税措施。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Is youth alcohol consumption responsive to tax-induced changes in the price of alcohol? Previous economics research using the most credible fixed-effects methods has not reached consensus on this fundamental question, despite that tax-induced price increases may reduce a range of alcohol-related harms (such as mortality, morbidity, crime, and risky sexual behavior) if youth drinking is, indeed, price responsive. This project will use several recent large tax changes adopted by states over the past decade to address statistical limitations of previous research that has relied on infrequent and small increases in alcohol excise taxes to identify the relationship between youth drinking and tax-induced price changes. In so doing, we will provide direct evidence on the likely effectiveness of excise taxes as a strategy to reduce the adverse consequences of youth alcohol consumption. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Underage alcohol use is estimated to cost society over $50 billion annually in the form of traffic accidents, emergency room visits, and crime. Youth drinking may be reduced by increasing alcohol taxes, but previous research on this question is limited. This project will provide new evidence on the usefulness of excise taxes to reduce youth drinking and associated harms by using numerous large tax increases adopted since 2002 in response to state budget shortfalls.