IS YOUTH DRINKING SENSITIVE TO PRICE? EVIDENCE FROM RECENT LARGE TAX CHANGES

描述（由申请人提供）：年轻人的酒精消费是否对酒精价格的税收变化有反应？以前的经济学研究使用了最可靠的固定效应方法，但没有在这个基本问题上达成共识，尽管如果青少年饮酒确实对价格有反应，那么税收引起的价格上涨可能会减少一系列与酒精相关的危害（如死亡率、发病率、犯罪率和危险性行为）。本项目将利用最近各州在过去十年中采取的几项重大税收变化来解决以往研究的统计局限性，这些研究依赖于不频繁和小幅增加酒精消费税来确定青少年饮酒与税收引起的价格变化之间的关系。在这样做的过程中，我们将提供直接证据，证明消费税作为一种减少青少年酒精消费不良后果的战略可能有效。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Is youth alcohol consumption responsive to tax-induced changes in the price of alcohol? Previous economics research using the most credible fixed-effects methods has not reached consensus on this fundamental question, despite that tax-induced price increases may reduce a range of alcohol-related harms (such as mortality, morbidity, crime, and risky sexual behavior) if youth drinking is, indeed, price responsive. This project will use several recent large tax changes adopted by states over the past decade to address statistical limitations of previous research that has relied on infrequent and small increases in alcohol excise taxes to identify the relationship between youth drinking and tax-induced price changes. In so doing, we will provide direct evidence on the likely effectiveness of excise taxes as a strategy to reduce the adverse consequences of youth alcohol consumption.