IS YOUTH DRINKING SENSITIVE TO PRICE? EVIDENCE FROM RECENT LARGE TAX CHANGES

描述(申请人提供)：青少年酒精消费对税收引起的酒精价格变化有反应吗？之前使用最可信的固定效应方法进行的经济学研究尚未在这个基本问题上达成共识，尽管如果年轻人饮酒确实对价格有反应，那么税收诱导的价格上涨可能会减少一系列与酒精相关的危害(如死亡率、发病率、犯罪率和危险的性行为)。该项目将利用各州在过去十年中最近通过的几项重大税收变化，来解决之前研究的统计局限性，这些研究依赖于不频繁和小幅增加的酒精消费税，以确定青少年饮酒与税收导致的价格变化之间的关系。通过这样做，我们将提供直接证据，证明消费税作为减少青少年饮酒不良后果的战略可能具有的有效性。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Is youth alcohol consumption responsive to tax-induced changes in the price of alcohol? Previous economics research using the most credible fixed-effects methods has not reached consensus on this fundamental question, despite that tax-induced price increases may reduce a range of alcohol-related harms (such as mortality, morbidity, crime, and risky sexual behavior) if youth drinking is, indeed, price responsive. This project will use several recent large tax changes adopted by states over the past decade to address statistical limitations of previous research that has relied on infrequent and small increases in alcohol excise taxes to identify the relationship between youth drinking and tax-induced price changes. In so doing, we will provide direct evidence on the likely effectiveness of excise taxes as a strategy to reduce the adverse consequences of youth alcohol consumption.