Ecology-Based Risk Assessment and Early Warning for HPAI in Asia

亚洲高致病性禽流感基于生态学的风险评估和预警

• 批准号: 7678995
• 负责人: Xiangming Xiao
• 金额: $ 37.9万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-09-15 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7678995
• 关键词: Agriculture; Asia; Avian Influenza; Avian Influenza A Virus; Biochemical; Blood Circulation; Businesses; Calendar; Cessation of life; Communicable Diseases; Country; Data Set; Disease Outbreaks; Domestic Fowls; Ecology; Education; Environment; Epidemiology; Goals; Hot Spot; Human; In Situ; Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype; International; Internet; Irrigation; Link; Location; Maps; Mutation; Public Health; Readiness; Research; Research Personnel; Resolution; Risk; Risk Assessment; Science; Scientist; Southeastern Asia; Students; Surface; System; Systems Integration; Technology; Temperature; Time; Update; base; data modeling; epidemiological model; experience; improved; migration; next generation; pandemic disease; pandemic influenza; remote sensing; wild bird

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Since late 2003 several East and Southeast Asia countries have experienced large outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI, subtype H5N1), or bird flu. By April 6, 2006, HPAI outbreaks occurred in 45 countries, 3 continents, with a total of 192 human cases (109 deaths). Widespread circulation of the avian flu virus also increases the chances of mutation into a form that could pass from human to human, which could result in a new human flu pandemic of unknown magnitude. At present, the efforts in risk assessment early warning of HPAI are to large degree hampered by (i) the lack of comprehensive understanding of the ecology of avian influenza, particularly in relation to agricultural systems, poultry, wild birds, biophysical and biochemical environments, and (ii) the facts that geospatial datasets used for risk assessment and early warning are often out-of-date and at coarse spatial (e.g., national or provincial) and temporal (e.g., at annual) resolutions. This interdisciplinary and international project combines epidemiology, ornithology, agriculture and environmental remote sensing. Its overall goal is threefold: (a) to better understand the ecology of HPAI in Asia; (b) to develop a data-model integration system that could identify "hot spots" (location-varying risk) and "hot times" (time-varying risk) of HPAI in Asia, and (c) to provide near-real-time ecology-based risk assessment and early warning of HPAI in 2007-2009 for Asia. Specifically, it will (1) provide updated and improved geospatial datasets of HPAI-relevant ecological factors, including migration flyways and timing of wild waterfowls, agricultural systems (cropping intensity, crop calendar, and irrigation), seasonality of wetlands, and biophysical variables (e.g., land surface temperature) at moderate spatial resolution (500-m to 1-km); (2) quantify the relationships between HPAI and ecological variables; (3) develop a GIS-based epidemiological model; and (4) develop an internet-based geospatial web system (primarily through linking GoogleEarth with research-oriented websites, e.g., http://remotesensing.unh.edu') for distributed mapping and timely distribution of HPAI-relevant information. This project employs remote sensing and GIS/GPS, in-situ observations, epidemiological models, and internet technology. This interdisciplinary project will make significant contribution to the ecology of infectious diseases and public health. The resultant dynamic maps of "hot spots" and "hot times" of HPAI risk regions, when distributed in a timely fashion, will aid the public, researchers, business, and decision makers in preparedness of potential HPAI pandemic crisis. This project will also provide interdisciplinary education for next generation scientists (both graduate and undergraduate students) in epidemiology, ornithology, public health and Earth system science.

描述（由申请人提供）：自2003年底以来，一些东亚和东南亚国家经历了高致病性禽流感（HPAI， H5N1亚型）或禽流感的大规模爆发。到2006年4月6日，高致病性禽流感在3大洲的45个国家暴发，共有192例人间病例（109例死亡）。禽流感病毒的广泛传播也增加了变异成一种可以在人与人之间传播的形式的机会，这可能导致一场规模未知的新的人类流感大流行。目前，高致病性禽流感风险评估预警工作在很大程度上受到以下因素的阻碍：(1)缺乏对禽流感生态学的全面了解，特别是在农业系统、家禽、野生鸟类、生物物理和生化环境方面，以及(2)用于风险评估和预警的地理空间数据集往往过时，而且在空间（如国家或省）和时间（如年度）决议上都很粗糙。这个跨学科的国际项目结合了流行病学、鸟类学、农业和环境遥感。其总体目标有三个：(a)更好地了解亚洲高致病性禽流感的生态；(b)开发一个数据模型集成系统，可以识别亚洲高致病性禽流感的“热点”（地点变化风险）和“热点时间”（时间变化风险）；(c)提供2007-2009年亚洲近实时的基于生态的高致病性禽流感风险评估和早期预警。具体而言，它将(1)以中等空间分辨率（500米至1公里）提供更新和改进的与高海拔生态因子相关的地理空间数据集，包括野生水禽的迁徙路线和时间、农业系统（种植强度、作物日历和灌溉）、湿地的季节性和生物物理变量（如地表温度）；(2)量化高致病性禽流感与生态变量的关系；(3)建立基于gis的流行病学模型；(4)开发一个基于互联网的地理空间网络系统（主要通过将GoogleEarth与研究型网站（例如http://remotesensing.unh.edu）连接起来），用于分布式制图和及时分发hpai相关信息。该项目采用遥感和GIS/GPS、现场观测、流行病学模型和互联网技术。这一跨学科项目将对传染病生态学和公共卫生作出重大贡献。由此产生的高致病性禽流感风险地区“热点”和“热点时间”动态地图如果及时分发，将有助于公众、研究人员、企业和决策者防范潜在的高致病性禽流感大流行危机。该项目还将为下一代科学家（包括研究生和本科生）提供流行病学、鸟类学、公共卫生和地球系统科学方面的跨学科教育。