Welfare Effects of Balancing the Federal Social Security and Health Care Budgets

平衡联邦社会保障和医疗保健预算的福利影响

• 批准号: 8918403
• 负责人: David J Canning
• 金额: $ 62.31万
• 依托单位: HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2019-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8918403
• 关键词: Accounting; Acute; Address; Affect; Age; Altruism; Behavior; Benchmarking; Budgets; Capital; Consumption; Data; Development; Economics; Education; Educational Background; Eligibility Determination; Equilibrium; Face; Family member; Fee-for-Service Plans; Funding; Future; Growth; Health; Health Care Costs; Health Insurance; Health Policy; Health Status; Health Technology; Health behavior outcomes; Healthcare; Immigration; Income; Insurance; Laws; Lead; Literature; Managed Care; Marketing; Measures; Medicare; Modeling; Outcome; Performance; Policies; Policy Analysis; Population; Rest; Running; Savings; Shock; Social Security; Social Welfare; Solutions; Subgroup; System; Taxes; Testing; Time; United States; Wages; aging population; care systems; cohort; cost; defined contribution; disability; disability payment; discounting; economic behavior; economic outcome; health economics; improved; innovation; interest; population health; programs; prospective; voucher

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We will model the welfare effects of policy changes to social Security and Medicare through a computable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (CGE) model. We bring together many strands of the CGE literature on Social Security and Medicare; combining them in a single model is highly innovative and gives the prospect of more realistic and reliable policy analysis. We will model both Medicare and Social Security, including disability, reforms at the same time allowing for synergies between the effects. We will explicitly allow for bounded rational consumers who are overly short term in their behavior and for altruism and transfers between family members. We will take into account aggregate macroeconomic, demographic, and health technology shocks and missing insurance markets. Most importantly we will model overall welfare combining the income and health effects of policy changes to give both an aggregate welfare measure for each policy and the welfare effects of population subgroups by cohort, education level, and initial health status. Our Specific Aims are: Aim 1 to construct and calibrate an integrated computable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (CGE) model of the United States economy with both Federal Social Security and health care policies and estimate the effects on income, consumption, health, and economic growth of various policy scenarios that will lead to balancing their budgets, and Aim 2 to use the outcomes of the model to estimate the welfare effects of different policy scenarios. We will estimate both aggregate welfare and the welfare of subgroups by cohort, education, and initial health state. Hypotheses to be tested: We will test policy options against a benchmark which balances the budget through a gradual reduction in benefits and increase in contributions: Hypothesis 1 Moving quickly to fully fund future obligations gives higher welfare while a long period of debt financing before balancing the budget lowers welfare. Hypothesis 2: Gradually increasing the benefit levels of both Medicare and Social Security are welfare-improving due to rising incomes and better health technologies despite the higher required financing. Hypothesis 3: A policy of allowing immigration by a large number of high- skilled workers would contribute to balancing the overall budget and be welfare-improving in terms of health and economic outcomes.

描述（由申请人提供）：我们将通过可计算的动态随机一般均衡（CGE）模型对社会保障和医疗保险政策变化的福利影响进行建模。我们汇集了 CGE 有关社会保障和医疗保险的许多文献；将它们结合在一个模型中具有高度创新性，并提供了更加现实和可靠的政策分析的前景。我们将同时对医疗保险和社会保障（包括残疾）进行改革，以实现效果之间的协同作用。我们将明确 允许行为过于短期的有限理性消费者、利他主义和家庭成员之间的转移。我们将考虑总体宏观经济、人口和健康技术冲击以及缺失的保险市场。最重要的是，我们将结合政策变化的收入和健康影响对总体福利进行建模，以给出每项政策的总体福利衡量标准以及按队列、教育水平和初始健康状况划分的人口亚组的福利影响。我们的具体目标是：目标 1 构建和校准美国经济的综合可计算动态随机一般均衡 (CGE) 模型，包括联邦社会保障和医疗保健政策，并估计各种政策情景对收入、消费、健康和经济增长的影响，从而平衡预算；目标 2 使用模型的结果来估计不同政策情景的福利效应。我们将按队列、教育程度和初始健康状况估计总福利和亚组福利。待检验的假设：我们将根据通过逐步减少福利和增加缴款来平衡预算的基准来测试政策选择：假设 1 迅速为未来债务提供充分资金会带来更高的福利，而在平衡预算之前长期债务融资会降低福利。假设2：尽管所需资金增加，但由于收入增加和卫生技术进步，逐步提高医疗保险和社会保障的福利水平会改善福利。假设3：允许大量高技能工人移民的政策将有助于平衡总体预算，并在健康和经济成果方面改善福利。