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Welfare Effects of Balancing the Federal Social Security and Health Care Budgets

平衡联邦社会保障和医疗保健预算的福利影响

基本信息

批准号：
8755943
负责人：
David J Canning
金额：
$ 64.33万
依托单位：
HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2014-09-01 至 2019-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8755943
关键词：
Accounting Acute Address Affect Age Altruism Behavior Benchmarking Budgets Capital Consumption Data Development Economics Education Educational Background Eligibility Determination Equilibrium Face Family member Fee-for-Service Plans Funding Future Growth Health Health Care Costs Health Insurance Health Policy Health Status Health Technology Health behavior outcomes Healthcare Immigration Income Insurance Laws Lead Literature Managed Care Marketing Measures Medicare Modeling Outcome Performance Policies Policy Analysis Population Rest Running Savings Shock Social Security Social Welfare Solutions Subgroup System Taxes Testing Time United States Wages aging population care systems cohort cost defined contribution disability disability payment discounting economic behavior economic outcome health economics improved innovation interest population health programs prospective public health relevance voucher

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We will model the welfare effects of policy changes to social Security and Medicare through a computable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (CGE) model. We bring together many strands of the CGE literature on Social Security and Medicare; combining them in a single model is highly innovative and gives the prospect of more realistic and reliable policy analysis. We will model both Medicare and Social Security, including disability, reforms at the same time allowing for synergies between the effects. We will explicitly allow for bounded rational consumers who are overly short term in their behavior and for altruism and transfers between family members. We will take into account aggregate macroeconomic, demographic, and health technology shocks and missing insurance markets. Most importantly we will model overall welfare combining the income and health effects of policy changes to give both an aggregate welfare measure for each policy and the welfare effects of population subgroups by cohort, education level, and initial health status. Our Specific Aims are: Aim 1 to construct and calibrate an integrated computable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (CGE) model of the United States economy with both Federal Social Security and health care policies and estimate the effects on income, consumption, health, and economic growth of various policy scenarios that will lead to balancing their budgets, and Aim 2 to use the outcomes of the model to estimate the welfare effects of different policy scenarios. We will estimate both aggregate welfare and the welfare of subgroups by cohort, education, and initial health state. Hypotheses to be tested: We will test policy options against a benchmark which balances the budget through a gradual reduction in benefits and increase in contributions: Hypothesis 1 Moving quickly to fully fund future obligations gives higher welfare while a long period of debt financing before balancing the budget lowers welfare. Hypothesis 2: Gradually increasing the benefit levels of both Medicare and Social Security are welfare-improving due to rising incomes and better health technologies despite the higher required financing. Hypothesis 3: A policy of allowing immigration by a large number of high- skilled workers would contribute to balancing the overall budget and be welfare-improving in terms of health and economic outcomes.

描述（由申请人提供）：我们将通过可计算的动态随机一般均衡（CGE）模型对社会保障和医疗保险政策变化的福利影响进行建模。我们汇集了许多关于社会保障和医疗保险的CGE文献；将它们结合在一个单一的模型中是高度创新的，并为更现实和可靠的政策分析提供了前景。我们将对医疗保险和社会保障（包括残疾）改革进行建模，同时考虑到两者之间的协同效应。我们会明确地