Mathematical modelling of bacterial carriage in children

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Children exposed to larger numbers of other children are at risk of persistent bacterial infections. Such circumstances explain the high rates of ear and chest infections, and skin sores seen in children in historical times. Changing social circumstances (smaller families, better housing, nutrition and hygiene), as well as the introduction of antibiotics, explain the decline of such infections in affluent communities since the early 20th century. However, even today, in affluent countries, children attending group child care are at high risk of ear infections. As many bacteria are resistant, antibiotics are now much less effective than when they were first introduced. Furthermore, there is a continuing load of infection for children in Aboriginal communities, in PNG and other developing countries, causing hearing loss, chronic respiratory problems, and heart disease and renal disease in later life. Using data previously collected from other studies in Indigenous communities and children in child care, mathematical models allow us to ask what if?, and answer important public health questions: 1. What environmental and public health measures can reduce the cycle of cross-infection in child-care and high-risk populations? 2. What coverage rates with pneumococcal vaccine will eliminate the vaccine-specific bacteria from child care centres, from the wider community, and from high risk populations? 3. Will infections with bacteria not covered by vaccine then increase? 4. Will the resistant bacteria tend to disappear if antibiotic use is restricted? 5. Under what circumstances will antibiotics help to control infection? The modelling will promote understanding of the social and health costs of bacterial infection in Aboriginal communities and child care and use educational scenarios to promote uptake of the most cost-effective and socially acceptable interventions.