Monitoring the Future: A Cohort-Sequential Panel Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-65

摘要 这项申请是监测的国家纵向小组数据收集的5年延续 未来(MTF)研究，一个正在进行的流行病学和致病物质使用研究和报告项目 始于1975年(N~120,000,1976-2027)。除了是一项基础研究外，MTF还成为 国家最依赖非法药物、酒精和尼古丁/烟草使用趋势的信息来源 在美国的青少年和年轻人、中年人和老年人中。此MTF面板应用程序寻求 继续对全国具有代表性的高中生样本进行纵向(基于网络)调查 (模特年龄18岁)在模特年龄19-30岁、35岁、40岁、45岁、50岁、55岁、60岁，现在是65岁。伴奏MTF主应用 涵盖具有全国代表性的8、10和12年级学生样本的在校数据收集和 为横断面和纵向数据分析提供资金。主组件和面板组件一起组成 综合MTF研究。MTF的广泛测量包括：(A)超过50年的开始、使用和停止 合法和非法药物的类别和子类别，包括药物使用障碍症状；(B) 对物质、可获得性和同伴规范的态度和信念；(C)个人风险和防护 因素(例如，抑郁情绪、亲社会活动)；(D)关键社会环境的各个方面(例如，家庭、工作)；以及 社会角色地位和转变；(E)健康、社会和成就后果；(F)风险和保护 与艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播有关的行为。队列顺序纵向设计允许 衡量可能解释历史趋势和队列差异的因素。MTF面板旨在 记录从青春期到成年期的药物使用和相关态度的发展过程(年龄 18-65)，并确定在整个生命过程中使用药物的预测因素和后果。关于风险的研究 艾滋病毒/艾滋病传播的防护行为将成为重点，将监测年龄扩大到 年龄在19岁到30岁之间的人。将继续跟踪按大学身份划分的物质使用情况，总计45年的年度趋势 比较美国大学生和非大学生年轻人的数据。长期随访现在将 包括在青少年药物使用历史高峰期间上高中的队列中65岁的数据，以及 现在面临着几十年后健康状况的下降。结果将继续阐明青春期的药物使用情况 通过成年期--包括使用新的药物和方式--对国家 政策、研究、预防和治疗议程。随着我们国家青少年和成人电子烟的增加 和大麻的使用，需要了解从青春期到成年期的使用趋势及其后果 健康、幸福、工作和家庭生活从未像现在这样美好。

ABSTRACT This application is for a 5-year continuation of the national longitudinal panel data collections of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, an ongoing epidemiological and etiological substance use research and reporting project begun in 1975 (N~120,000, 1976-2027). In addition to being a basic research study, MTF has become one of the nation's most relied upon sources of information on trends in illicit drug, alcohol, and nicotine/tobacco use among adolescents and young, middle, and older adults in the United States. This MTF Panel application seeks to continue the longitudinal (web-based) surveys of nationally representative samples of high school students (modal age 18) at modal ages 19–30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, and now 65. The companion MTF Main application covers in-school data collections of nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students and funding for cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysis. The Main and Panel components together comprise the integrated MTF study. MTF's broad measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for over 50 categories and subcategories of licit and illicit drugs, including symptoms of substance use disorders; (b) attitudes and beliefs about substances, perceived availability, and peer norms; (c) individual risk and protective factors (e.g., depressive affect, pro-social activities); (d) aspects of key social contexts (e.g., home, work), and social role statuses and transitions; (e) health, social, and achievement consequences; and (f) risk and protective behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS. The cohort-sequential longitudinal design permits the measurement of factors that may explain historical trends and cohort differences. MTF Panel is designed to document the developmental course of drug use and related attitudes from adolescence through adulthood (ages 18-65), and to determine the predictors and consequences of drug use across the life course. Research on risk and protective behaviors for the transmission of HIV/AIDS will be a focus, extending the age of monitoring to those aged 19 to 30. Substance use by college status will continue to be tracked, totaling 45 years of annual trend data comparing college students and non-college young adults in the U.S. The long-term follow-up will now include data at age 65 among cohorts who were in high school during historic peaks in teen substance use and are now facing declining health decades later. Results will continue to elucidate drug use from adolescence through adulthood—including the use of new drugs and modalities—with important implications for national policy, research, prevention, and treatment agendas. As our nation sees increases in adolescent and adult vaping and marijuana use, the need to understand trends in use from adolescence to adulthood and consequences on health, well-being, and work and family life has never been greater.