Bioinformatics Studies of Human Viruses

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We have developed statistical methods to estimate age-specific susceptibilities and virulences from epidemic case data stratified by decades of age. The susceptibilities and virulences should help quantify epidemic spread due to different age-groups, with relevance to, e.g., school closures in future epidemics. We have also elaborated mathematical methods for the time a branching process requires to reach a particular population size, with the aim of timing the origins of COVID-19. Our meta-analysis of data from SIV-macaque trials indicate a statistically significant trend for macaques to become more susceptible to SIV infection as a trial progresses. The exact biological interpretation of this unexpected result is unclear. Among other possibilities, it may be a effect confined only to some of the trials examined; it may represent local immune responses to SIV at the site of challenge; or it may represent the results of physical trauma at the challenge site. We are currently discussing the results with investigators running the SIV-macaque trials.