Groundwater and surface water responses to climate change within Canadian Arctic and Great Lakes basins

我的研究计划的总体目标是为气候变化对地表和地下水资源的影响提供新的见解和更好的量化。我将重点介绍两个项目。第一个项目将调查加拿大北极和亚北极地区的地下水和地表水将如何应对全球变暖。重点是量化永久冻土对大气温度和太阳变化的水文、岩土和生物地球化学响应。第二个项目调查伊利湖流域的悬浮沉积物负荷和相关污染物如何受到地下水-地表水相互作用的控制，以及这些联系如何受到人为因素和气候因素的影响。永久冻土水文地质研究的核心是加拿大创新基金会（CFI）资助的（65万美元）气候室，该气候室将重现加拿大北极的太阳和大气环境。该方法首先在气候和生态敏感的麦肯齐河流域选择一个采样点，并测试提取方法。2007年，一块永久冻土层的巨石（直径1.5米，深度4米）将被提取出来，用冷藏车运到西部的气候室。然后，研究将侧重于多年冻土的水文地质、岩土工程和生物地球化学性质如何随着与已公布的气候变化情景一致的不同大气强迫（太阳、气温、降水、二氧化碳）而变化。确定加拿大北极生态系统将如何应对气候变化是至关重要的。伊利湖流域研究始于2004年，当时是一个实地项目，测量了凯特尔溪流域的悬浮沉积物浓度。凯特尔溪流域是一个典型的例子，在这里，污染沉积物的再动员正在对人类健康和生态造成威胁。将开发一个流域数值模型，预测土地管理做法对流域水、沉积物和农业化学品产量的影响。2005年秋天，大河流域的研究工作开始了，类似的程序将在伊利湖所有的流域进行，直到形成一个完整的流域模型。随着流域发生人为和气候引起的变化，沉积物相关污染物将继续被重新动员，并对人类和生态系统健康产生负面影响。这项研究最终将使这种风险的预测和管理成为可能。

The overall objective of my research program is to provide new insight and better quantification of the effects of climate change on our surface and groundwater resources.  I will focus on two projects.  The first project will investigate how the groundwater and surface water of Canada's Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions will respond to global warming.  The focus is on quantifying the hydrologic, geotechnical, and biogeochemical response of permafrost to atmospheric temperature and solar variations.  The second project investigates how suspended sediment loads and associated contaminants in the Lake Erie watershed are controlled by groundwater-surface water interactions and how these linkages are affected by anthropogenic and climatic factors.             Central to the permafrost hydrogeology research is a Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI) funded ($650,000) climate chamber which will reproduce the Canadian Arctic solar and atmospheric environment.  The approach is to first select a sampling site in the climate and ecologically sensitive Mackenzie River Basin and test extraction methods.  In 2007 a permafrost monolith (1.5 m diameter, 4 m depth) will be extracted and transported by refrigerated truck to the climate chamber at Western.  Research will then focus on how the hydrogeological, geotechnical, and biogeochemical properties of permafrost change with varying atmospheric forcing (solar, air temperature, precipitation, CO2) consistent with published climate change scenarios.  It is critical to determine how Canada's Arctic ecosystems will respond to climate change.        The Lake Erie basin research started in 2004 with a field program measuring suspended sediment concentrations in the Kettle Creek watershed.  The Kettle Creek watershed is a prime example where the re-mobilization of contaminated sediment is posing human health and ecological risks.  A numerical watershed model will be developed that predicts the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in the watershed.  In fall 2005 work began on the Grand River watershed, and similar procedures will be followed for all Lake Erie subwatersheds until a complete basin model is developed.  As anthropogenic and climate induced changes occur in the watershed sediment associated contaminants will continue to be re-mobilized and negatively affect human and ecosystem health.  This research will ultimately allow the prediction and management of this risk.