Identifying mechanisms leading to size-selective mortality in the early marine phase of juvenile Pacific salmon

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Many stocks of Pacific salmon are experiencing continued and severe declines despite reductions in fishing effort and the implementation of conservation and mitigation initiatives. This prolonged decline of salmon stocks is particularly prevalent in Chinook salmon and sockeye salmon, where declines have been observed range-wide, but especially in southern BC. The sustained low return rates of southern British Columbia salmon stocks over the last 20 years have been attributed to a combination of unfavorable marine conditions during early life such as climate change, variability in prey availability, predation risk, disease, habitat degradation, or human stressors other than fishing. While the causes of Pacific salmon declines are likely multifactorial, it is generally recognized that persistently unfavourable ocean conditions and poor marine survival played a major role in these declines. Salmon mortality rates generally exceed 90-95% during the marine stages of their life. Much of this loss is thought to occur in coastal environments as a consequence of either heavy predation upon ocean entry and/or due to winter starvation. Here, we will take a multidisciplinary approach to elucidate the interacting effects of ocean conditions, growth, phenology, and physiological performance on variation in survival of early ocean juvenile Chinook and sockeye salmon. Specific objectives include: 1/ Quantifying the links between early growth and mortality by assessing the role of early marine growth and condition to survival of juvenile salmon from otolith microstructure, length frequency analyses, energy dynamics and predator stomach contents; 2/ Experimentally testing how juvenile salmon respond to climate and food variability during early marine life; 3/ Testing the relationship between winter severity and resiliency to starvation on growth, survival, and vulnerability to predation; 4/ Determining the relationship between oxygen isotopes and temperature in otoliths from fish in temperature-controlled experiments. By assessing the extent and causes of early marine mortality in juvenile salmon, this project will improve our understanding of the factors limiting the production of Pacific salmon in the marine environment.