Study of arctic and subarctic winter extreme events in a changing climate/Étude des évènements extrêmes hivernaux en régions arctiques et subarctiques dans un climat en changement

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The first and strongest signs of global climate variability and change have been observed in northern regions over the past 3 decades which has led to a variety of strong climate-related feedbacks. A direct consequence of warming temperatures in the North is the increased occurrence of winter extreme events (WEE) such as rain-on-snow, heat waves, blizzards and heavy snowfall that are expected to last longer. Hence, the overarching goal of the proposed research is to monitor WEE in subarctic and arctic environments using 30 years of satellite remote sensing data (microwave, multispectral) and modeling at various scales. In order for the proposed research to achieve its goals, my approach is twofold: 1) data field collection is planned to observe and characterize impacts of extreme events on surface properties and the associated electromagnetic responses in order to develop WEE detection algorithms using remote sensing. The WEE will then be monitored from space in order to identify trends in event occurrences; 2) the obtained results will be compared with snow model simulations to evaluate their performance in simulating WEE as well as identifying associated biases in climate scenarios. The novelty of the proposed research resides in the fact that the occurrence of WEE in arctic and subarctic regions has not been studied using remote sensing despite its significant impacts at various levels. This is mostly due to a lack of data and expertise given the harsh winter working conditions. Subarctic and arctic WEE are of particular relevance from scientific (e.g., climate scenario development), economic (e.g., damage to infrastructure) and social (e.g., public safety and natural hazards) perspectives. The proposed project provides a unique opportunity to address these urgent needs in the context of climate change and increased interest in northern natural resources. The remote sensing science that would be developed will improve our current knowledge of the state of subarctic and arctic regions and will be of significant relevance to decision-makers and northern stakeholders.