River water temperature as a key component of fish aquatic habitat: development of new modelling tools.

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Water temperature is an important variable in river ecology. It modulates habitat quantity and quality for fish and other lotic organisms. Fisheries closures and fish mortality have been linked to high water temperature. The long term objective of my research program is to develop an innovative assessment framework for river fish habitat and ecological flow determination. More specifically, on the short term, the development of useful analytical and modelling tools related to the thermal regime of river and physical variables characterizing fish habitat will be the main focus of my work. Over the next five years, research themes in my program will include: 1) Developping ensemble water temperature forecast models; 2) Developping methods to assess the uncertainty associated with the ensembles forecasts; and 3) the inclusion of water temperature in salmonid habitat preference models. For the first research theme, ensemble forecasts will be developped using both statistical and deterministic approaches. Uncertainty will be quantified in part using Bayesian model averaging. The inclusion of water temperature in habitat models will be done using Interval Type II fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, as well as symbolic regression. The proposed program is not only a necessary step in the implementation of useful habitat modeling tools, but it will also contribute to multidisciplinary research and training in the developing field of environmental hydrology. Given the importance of temperature in fisheries management, the developped tools will be benificial to provincial and federal government agencies who manage the fish stocks as well as Canadian industries who need to comply with regulations aiming at maintaining an adequate river water temperature for fish.