River water temperature as a key component of fish aquatic habitat: development of new modelling tools.

河流水温作为鱼类水生栖息地的关键组成部分：开发新的建模工具。

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-05674
• 负责人: StHilaire, André
• 金额: $ 2.04万
• 依托单位: Institut national de la recherche scientifique
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=588554
• 关键词: River; water; temperature; key; component

Water temperature is an important variable in river ecology. It modulates habitat quantity and quality for fish and other lotic organisms. Fisheries closures and fish mortality have been linked to high water temperature. The long term objective of my research program is to develop an innovative assessment framework for river fish habitat and ecological flow determination. More specifically, on the short term, the development of useful analytical and modelling tools related to the thermal regime of river and physical variables characterizing fish habitat will be the main focus of my work. Over the next five years, research themes in my program will include: 1) Developping ensemble water temperature forecast models; 2) Developping methods to assess the uncertainty associated with the ensembles forecasts; and 3) the inclusion of water temperature in salmonid habitat preference models. For the first research theme, ensemble forecasts will be developped using both statistical and deterministic approaches. Uncertainty will be quantified in part using Bayesian model averaging. The inclusion of water temperature in habitat models will be done using Interval Type II fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, as well as symbolic regression. The proposed program is not only a necessary step in the implementation of useful habitat modeling tools, but it will also contribute to multidisciplinary research and training in the developing field of environmental hydrology. Given the importance of temperature in fisheries management, the developped tools will be benificial to provincial and federal government agencies who manage the fish stocks as well as Canadian industries who need to comply with regulations aiming at maintaining an adequate river water temperature for fish.

水温是河流生态学中的一个重要变量。它调节鱼类和其他海洋生物栖息地的数量和质量。渔业关闭和鱼类死亡与高水温有关。我的研究计划的长期目标是发展一个创新的评估框架，河流鱼类栖息地和生态流量的决定。更具体地说，在短期内，开发有用的分析和建模工具，与河流的热状况和鱼类栖息地的物理变量有关，将是我工作的主要重点。在接下来的五年里，我的计划的研究主题将包括：1）开发合奏水温预测模型; 2）开发方法来评估与合奏预测相关的不确定性;和3）在鲑鱼栖息地偏好模型中包含水温。 对于第一个研究主题，集合预报将使用统计和确定性方法。将使用贝叶斯模型平均值对不确定性进行部分量化。将水温列入栖息地模型将使用区间II型模糊集和模糊逻辑，以及符号回归。该计划不仅是实施有用的栖息地建模工具的必要步骤，而且还将有助于环境水文学发展领域的多学科研究和培训。鉴于温度在渔业管理中的重要性，开发的工具将有利于省级和联邦政府机构管理的鱼类种群以及加拿大的行业谁需要遵守旨在保持足够的河水温度的鱼类法规。