Regional Analysis and modelling of river temperature

水温被认为是一个关键的河流变量。河流中的极端水温与重要渔业的关闭和鱼类死亡有关。 在接下来的五年里，我打算专注于一个新的研究方向，与区域分析和河流水温建模。将实现以下具体目标：1）制定确定热均质区域（THR）的方法，即具有相似热状况的河流群; 2）制定创新方法，描述每组河流的季节性热状况并建立模型; 3）制定模型，评估每组河流在非平稳背景下的水温异常和极端情况;（4）建立加拿大第一个区域确定性水温模型框架。* 定义热均匀区域的新方法将利用小波分析，并通过比较样本顺序统计量来测试均匀性。水温时间序列的季节部分将使用灵活的贝塔分布进行建模。将开发一个具有外源变量的非平稳区域自回归模型，以模拟水温异常（减去季节趋势后的日温度残差）。* 将使用全区域非平稳阈值以上峰值（POT）方法、分位数回归、copula和渐进追踪回归对极值进行建模。* 最后，将利用CEQUEAU水文和水温模型开发一个区域确定性模型框架。* 拟议的研究不仅是实施有用的管理工具的必要步骤，而且还将有助于在一个发展中领域开展多学科研究和培训。拟议研究的影响不仅限于渔业管理，还将对城市取水和出水的管理产生影响，因为水质在很大程度上取决于水温。

Water Temperature is recognized as a key river variable. Extreme water temperatures in rivers have been linked to the closing of important fisheries and fish mortality. Over the next five years, I intend to focus on a new research direction related to regional analysis and modelling of river water temperature. The following specific objectives will be pursued: 1) develop methods to identify thermally homogenous regions (THR), i.e. groups of rivers with similar thermal regimes; 2) develop innovative approaches to characterize and model the seasonal thermal regime of rivers within each group; 3) develop models to assess water temperature anomalies and extremes within each group in a non-stationary context; and 4) develop the first Canadian framework for regional deterministic water temperature modelling. ***New methods for the definition of thermally homogenous regions will make use of wavelet analysis and homogeneity will be tested with the comparison of sample order statistics. The seasonal component of the water temperature time series will be modelled using the flexible Beta distribution. A non-stationary regional AutoRegressive model with eXogenous variables (ARX) will be developed to model the water temperature anomalies (daily temperature residuals once the seasonal trend has been subtracted). ***Extremes will be modelled using a fully regional non-stationary Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method, quantile regression, copulas and progression pursuit regression. ***Finally, a regional deterministic model framework will be developed with the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model. ***The proposed research is not only a necessary step in the implementation of useful management tools, but it will also contribute to multidisciplinary research and training in a developing field. The impact of the proposed research is not limited to fisheries management and will have repercussions in the management of municipal water intakes and outflows because water quality is highly dependent on water temperature.**