River water temperature as a key component of fish aquatic habitat: development of new modelling tools.

水温是河流生态的一个重要变量。它调节鱼类和其他水生生物栖息地的数量和质量。渔业关闭和鱼类死亡与高水温有关。我的研究项目的长期目标是开发一个创新的河鱼栖息地和生态流量评估框架。更具体地说，在短期内，开发与河流热状态和表征鱼类栖息地的物理变量相关的有用分析和建模工具将是我工作的主要重点。未来5年，我的研究课题将包括：1)开发集合水温预报模型；2)开发与系统预报相关的不确定性评估方法；3)将水温纳入鲑鱼栖息地偏好模型。对于第一个研究主题，将使用统计和确定性方法开发集合预测。不确定性将部分使用贝叶斯模型平均来量化。采用区间II型模糊集、模糊逻辑和符号回归等方法将水温纳入生境模型。拟议的方案不仅是实施有用的生境建模工具的必要步骤，而且还将有助于发展中的环境水文学领域的多学科研究和培训。鉴于温度在渔业管理中的重要性，开发的工具将有利于管理鱼类资源的省级和联邦政府机构，以及需要遵守旨在为鱼类维持适当河水温度的法规的加拿大工业。

Water temperature is an important variable in river ecology. It modulates habitat quantity and quality for fish and other lotic organisms. Fisheries closures and fish mortality have been linked to high water temperature. The long term objective of my research program is to develop an innovative assessment framework for river fish habitat and ecological flow determination. More specifically, on the short term, the development of useful analytical and modelling tools related to the thermal regime of river and physical variables characterizing fish habitat will be the main focus of my work. Over the next five years, research themes in my program will include: 1) Developping ensemble water temperature forecast models; 2) Developping methods to assess the uncertainty associated with the ensembles forecasts; and 3) the inclusion of water temperature in salmonid habitat preference models. For the first research theme, ensemble forecasts will be developped using both statistical and deterministic approaches. Uncertainty will be quantified in part using Bayesian model averaging. The inclusion of water temperature in habitat models will be done using Interval Type II fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, as well as symbolic regression. The proposed program is not only a necessary step in the implementation of useful habitat modeling tools, but it will also contribute to multidisciplinary research and training in the developing field of environmental hydrology. Given the importance of temperature in fisheries management, the developped tools will be benificial to provincial and federal government agencies who manage the fish stocks as well as Canadian industries who need to comply with regulations aiming at maintaining an adequate river water temperature for fish.