Regional Analysis and modelling of river temperature

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Water Temperature is recognized as a key river variable. Extreme water temperatures in rivers have been linked to the closing of important fisheries and fish mortality. Over the next five years, I intend to focus on a new research direction related to regional analysis and modelling of river water temperature. The following specific objectives will be pursued: 1) develop methods to identify thermally homogenous regions (THR), i.e. groups of rivers with similar thermal regimes; 2) develop innovative approaches to characterize and model the seasonal thermal regime of rivers within each group; 3) develop models to assess water temperature anomalies and extremes within each group in a non-stationary context; and 4) develop the first Canadian framework for regional deterministic water temperature modelling. New methods for the definition of thermally homogenous regions will make use of wavelet analysis and homogeneity will be tested with the comparison of sample order statistics. The seasonal component of the water temperature time series will be modelled using the flexible Beta distribution. A non-stationary regional AutoRegressive model with eXogenous variables (ARX) will be developed to model the water temperature anomalies (daily temperature residuals once the seasonal trend has been subtracted). Extremes will be modelled using a fully regional non-stationary Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method, quantile regression, copulas and progression pursuit regression. Finally, a regional deterministic model framework will be developed with the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model. The proposed research is not only a necessary step in the implementation of useful management tools, but it will also contribute to multidisciplinary research and training in a developing field. The impact of the proposed research is not limited to fisheries management and will have repercussions in the management of municipal water intakes and outflows because water quality is highly dependent on water temperature.