Decision Support System (DSS) tool development for PV solar farm's short-term output power prediction

光伏太阳能发电场短期输出功率预测的决策支持系统（DSS）工具开发

• 批准号: 479457-2015
• 负责人: Beheshti, Soosan
• 金额: $ 1.82万
• 依托单位: Ryerson University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Engage Grants Program
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=580083
• 关键词: Decision; Support; System; DSS; tool

Design and development of a DSS tool for accurate prediction of the sun irradiation and the related PV farm's output power profiles for the next 24 hours is the focus of this project.The results of this project enable Felix Technology Inc. to benefit their business as a company with weather information solutions for renewable energy suppliers and power system operators. The existing commercial software packages that are available in the market do not satisfy companies current requirements. The company requires to have its own algorithm that is compatible with its sun radiation data management system. We will develop a software package/DSS tool to process the measured solar radiation and PV farm output power and to predict the PV farm output power for the next 24 hours. Our expertise in data clustering, adaptive prediction of stochastic processes, and data mining will be used in this project. The proposed DSS tool has four main modules:1) data mining module; 2) hybrid forecasting module; 3) adaptive clustering module; 4) graphical user interface(GUI). We will use advanced mathematical modeling, data mining techniques and prediction algorithms to build the above named software modules and integrate them into a useful and practical DSS tool for the Felix Tech. Our DSS tool will benefit the Felix Tech in offering new analytical services. It will also benefit its customers (e.g. PV farms, Wind farms, and Power Utility companies) in optimal and risk free planning and operation of their renewable energy systems.

该项目的重点是设计和开发一个DSS工具，用于准确预测未来24小时的太阳辐射和相关光伏发电场的输出功率分布。作为一家为可再生能源供应商和电力系统运营商提供天气信息解决方案的公司，市场上现有的商业软件包不能满足公司目前的要求。该公司要求拥有自己的算法，与其太阳辐射数据管理系统兼容。我们将开发一个软件包/DSS工具来处理测量的太阳辐射和光伏发电场输出功率，并预测未来24小时的光伏发电场输出功率。我们在数据聚类，随机过程的自适应预测和数据挖掘方面的专业知识将用于该项目。该决策支持系统包括四个主要模块：1）数据挖掘模块; 2）混合模型 预测模块; 3）自适应聚类模块; 4）图形用户界面。我们将使用先进的数学建模，数据挖掘技术和预测算法，建立上述命名的软件模块，并将它们集成到一个有用的和实用的DSS工具的费利克斯技术。我们的DSS工具将有利于Felix Tech提供新的分析服务。它还将使其客户（例如光伏发电场，风力发电场和电力公司）在其可再生能源系统的最佳和无风险规划和运营中受益。