Optimization models for evidence-based reliability and maintenance decisions

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The oil and gas industry is a key driver of Canada's economy. Canada is currently the world's 6th largest oil producer and is poised to become one of the top three in the world over the next two decades. However, poor safety practices with regard to buried assets such as oil and gas pipelines can have a significant negative impact on the environment, economy, and society. For example, the 2010 Enbridge oil spill in Michigan was the worst environmental disaster in the history of the American Midwest. The main causes of such high-profile accidents are aging pipelines constructed decades ago, that are not properly maintained to extend their designed useful life, or preventively replaced. Proactive integrity management of pipeline infrastructure is essential to the prevention of fatalities and immense damage to the environment. This research program will contribute to pipeline integrity management through the development of evidence-based scientific methods based on realistic assumption, yet be not too complicated to be applied in practice. More specifically, we will develop quantitative risk assessment models, which can help pipeline managers prioritize their pipeline segments and apply their maintenance resources where they are most needed. Unnecessary and excessive preventive maintenance could be also loss-making likewise inadequate level of maintenance. Moreover, we will develop probabilistic methods to estimate the reliability of pipelines exposed to environmental diversity and varying loads and to predict their remaining useful life. These models help to predict the failure of pipeline segments before occurrence, so that a preventive action such as repair or replacement can be taken, which should result in significantly lower negative environmental impact and maintenance cost. Finally, we will construct inspection and maintenance optimization models for pipelines to minimize failure risk at the lowest operating and maintenance expenses. These models allow the determination of an optimal replacement/repair policy, which balances the cost of inspections and maintenance with the cost and risk of failures. The results of this research proposal is expected to deliver environmental, economic, and social benefits to Canadian society.