Design, measurement and modelling in spatio-temporal analysis

时空分析中的设计、测量和建模

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-03776
• 负责人: Zidek, James
• 金额: $ 3.35万
• 依托单位: University of British Columbia
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=614621
• 关键词: Design; measurement; modelling; spatio; temporal

The burgeoning World population, newly predicted under present conditions to continue growing to as much as 15billion by the year 2100, is leading to increasing concerns about elevated levels of environment risk. More incidents e.g. high temperature episodes and the increased consumption of fossil fuels e.g. coal are expected. This dark future portends an increased need to effectively monitor environmental processes over space and time along with accurate methods for predicting these processes where they cannot be monitored in space and in the future, to support the management and mitigation of these risks through effective policy and regulation. Statisticians have a major role to play in this future, particularly in quantifying the uncertainties that abound. The proposed research will continue the applicant’s long-term research program on the optimum design of spatio - temporal process monitoring networks and the use of the resulting data for modelling these processes for spatial prediction and future values. In particular, since existing network stations tend to be sited at preferentially selected geographical locations, we will continue seeking methods to reduce errors in statistical estimates induced by locating stations in that way. The research will also explore a promising objective method for siting them, one that insures they are well distributed over space. The remainder of the research concerns the use of data from these networks, possibly with adjustments for the effects of preferential siting, to create good spatio - temporal models. We will continue current research and seek models for temperature fields that extend their geographical domains of applicability - current work has focused the Pacific Northwest region of North America, beyond what has been considered to date. The results of this work will be used in the development of a new method for short term forecasting - this will combine an ensemble of computer models with temperature data, all in the direction of mitigating the adverse health effects of high temperatures. We will also seek to improve the efficiency of current temperature monitoring networks. But climate change is affecting not just the human species. Other research will concern marine mammals since their numbers in some regions are being depleted for reasons not yet understood. Now the research will continue work already begun on modelling the paths of fur seals between GPS sitings to better estimate their energy consumption (thus indicating how much food they need) as well as learn about the habitats they seek. The effect of climate change on these habitats will be the ultimate goal of the research on the impacts of increasing human populations and their impacts on the climate.

据最新预测，在目前情况下，世界人口将继续增长，到2100年将达到150亿，这使人们越来越关注环境风险水平的提高。预计会有更多的事件发生，例如高温事件和化石燃料（例如煤）的消耗增加。这一黑暗的未来预示着越来越需要有效地监测空间和时间上的环境过程，以及在空间和未来无法监测这些过程的情况下预测这些过程的准确方法，以便通过有效的政策和法规支持管理和减轻这些风险。统计学家将在未来扮演重要角色，特别是在量化大量不确定性方面。