Uncertainty & environmental process modelling

总结 这一提议的大部分内容涉及环境过程，如在海洋等大空间域上演变的天气。已经形成了两种截然不同的建模文化，一种是基于试图复制现实的确定性模型，另一种是基于试图概括现实的随机性模型，本建议探讨如何将这些方法结合起来，在需要预测时克服各自的不足。事实上，当需要整合许多不同的确定性模型和测量方法时，如在天气预报中，所提出的研究将适用。该提案的一部分涉及更好的环境过程统计模型，其参数可以随着时间和空间逐渐变化。处理非常大的域和数据集的方法。(One我们讨论的应用涉及具有多于3mi参数的统计模型）。 监测环境过程，如空气污染，以保护人类健康和福利，需要设置一个监测网络。然后，这些可能是专门建立的，以检测不符合监管标准。我们将考虑如何调整测量以消除偏差，以及如何将它们用于其他目的，例如准确估计过程对健康的影响。 气候变化强调开发工具，以更好地管理加拿大农业的风险。保险和期货合约应该如何定价？我们将继续在这一领域开展工作，并制作涵盖空间和时间的模型，以预测干旱的持续时间和当地农场的第一次夜间霜冻。将进一步开展工作，预测作物产量与土壤湿度的关系。 最后，该建议涉及理论问题。特别是，我将进一步探讨信息如何影响不确定性。第一个因素越多，第二个因素就越少吗？一般来说，答案是否定的，但在什么情况下会出现不确定性增加。这些问题尚未得到充分探讨。

Summary Much of this proposal concerns environmental processes such as weather that evolve over large spatial domains such as an ocean. Two very different modelling cultures have developed, one based on deterministic models that attempt to replicate reality and the other, based on stochastic models that try to summarize it. This proposal explores ways of combining those approaches, to overcome their individual deficiencies where forecasts are needed. In fact, the research proposed would apply when a number of different deterministic models and measurement methods need to be integrated, as in weather forecasting. Part of the proposal concerns better statistical models for environmental processes, ones whose parameters can change gradually over time and space. Approaches are presented for handling the very large domains and datasets involved. (One application we discuss involves a statistical model with more than 3mi parameters.) Monitoring environmental processes such as air pollution to protect human health and welfare entails siting a newtwork of monitors. These may then be purpose built to detect non compliance regulatory standards. We will consider both how to adjust the measurements to remove bias and also how to site them for other purposes such as the getting accurate estimates of the processes impact on health. Climate change has put emphasis on developing tools to better manage risk in Canadian agriculture. How should insurance and futures contracts be priced. We will continue work in this area and produce models covering space and time to forecast the duration of a drought and the first night frost at the level of a local farm. Further work will be done on forecasting crop yields as a function of soil moisture. Finally the proposal addresses theoretical issues. In particular, I will explore further how information impacts on uncertainty. Does more of the first always lead to less of the second? The answer is no in general, but under what circumstances does an increase in uncertainty occur. Such issues have not been much explored.