Design, measurement and modelling in spatio-temporal analysis

据最新预测，在目前情况下，世界人口将继续增长，到2100年将达到150亿，这使人们越来越关注环境风险水平的提高。预计会有更多的事件发生，例如高温事件和化石燃料（例如煤）的消耗增加。这一黑暗的未来预示着越来越需要有效地监测空间和时间上的环境过程，以及在空间和未来无法监测这些过程的情况下预测这些过程的准确方法，以便通过有效的政策和法规支持管理和减轻这些风险。统计学家将在未来扮演重要角色，特别是在量化大量不确定性方面。******建议的研究将继续申请人对时空过程监测网络的优化设计和使用结果数据对这些过程进行空间预测和未来价值建模的长期研究计划。特别是，由于现有台站往往设在优先选择的地理位置，我们将继续寻求方法，以减少以这种方式定位台站所引起的统计估计误差。该研究还将探索一种有前途的客观方法来定位它们，一种确保它们在空间上均匀分布的方法。******剩下的研究涉及使用这些网络的数据，可能会对优先选址的影响进行调整，以创建良好的时空模型。我们将继续目前的研究，并寻求扩展其地理适用范围的温度场模型-目前的工作主要集中在北美太平洋西北地区，超出了迄今为止所考虑的范围。这项工作的结果将用于开发一种新的短期预报方法——这将把一系列计算机模型与温度数据结合起来，所有这些都是为了减轻高温对健康的不利影响。我们还将设法提高当前温度监测网络的效率。******但是气候变化影响的不仅仅是人类。其他研究将关注海洋哺乳动物，因为一些地区的海洋哺乳动物数量正在减少，原因尚不清楚。现在，这项研究将继续进行已经开始的工作，对海狗在GPS定位之间的路径进行建模，以更好地估计它们的能量消耗（从而表明它们需要多少食物），并了解它们寻找的栖息地。气候变化对这些栖息地的影响将是研究人口增长及其对气候影响的最终目标。* * * * *

The burgeoning World population, newly predicted under present conditions to continue growing to as much as 15billion by the year 2100, is leading to increasing concerns about elevated levels of environment risk. More incidents e.g. high temperature episodes and the increased consumption of fossil fuels e.g. coal are expected. This dark future portends an increased need to effectively monitor environmental processes over space and time along with accurate methods for predicting these processes where they cannot be monitored in space and in the future, to support the management and mitigation of these risks through effective policy and regulation. Statisticians have a major role to play in this future, particularly in quantifying the uncertainties that abound.******The proposed research will continue the applicant's long-term research program on the optimum design of spatio – temporal process monitoring networks and the use of the resulting data for modelling these processes for spatial prediction and future values. In particular, since existing network stations tend to be sited at preferentially selected geographical locations, we will continue seeking methods to reduce errors in statistical estimates induced by locating stations in that way. The research will also explore a promising objective method for siting them, one that insures they are well distributed over space. ******The remainder of the research concerns the use of data from these networks, possibly with adjustments for the effects of preferential siting, to create good spatio – temporal models. We will continue current research and seek models for temperature fields that extend their geographical domains of applicability – current work has focused the Pacific Northwest region of North America, beyond what has been considered to date. The results of this work will be used in the development of a new method for short term forecasting – this will combine an ensemble of computer models with temperature data, all in the direction of mitigating the adverse health effects of high temperatures. We will also seek to improve the efficiency of current temperature monitoring networks.******But climate change is affecting not just the human species. Other research will concern marine mammals since their numbers in some regions are being depleted for reasons not yet understood. Now the research will continue work already begun on modelling the paths of fur seals between GPS sitings to better estimate their energy consumption (thus indicating how much food they need) as well as learn about the habitats they seek. The effect of climate change on these habitats will be the ultimate goal of the research on the impacts of increasing human populations and their impacts on the climate.*** **