Ice-jam flood forecasting and ice-jam flood risk assessment

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This NSERC Discovery Grant proposal is an ambitious five-year research program to advance understanding of ice-jam formation and flooding along northern rivers. This work focuses on achieving the long-term goal of forecasting and assessing ice-jam floods. Floods account for the greatest number of hydrological/meteorological natural disaster events in Canada and, for most Canadian rivers, the annual peak water levels are due to ice jams. Current ice-jam flood warning systems require extensive field observations, have considerable uncertainty and thus lack reliability. Nonetheless, flood forecasting and risk mapping are desperately needed by government agencies, insurance companies, urban planners, and developers. This research program strives to develop new tools to forecast ice jams and assess their subsequent flood risk to communities along northern rivers. This research program aims to develop a more reliable modelling system. To achieve this long-term goal, fundamental issues that impede our ability to predict ice-jam events and their consequences will be addressed: (i) empirical criteria for breakup occurrence, (ii) geospatial modelling to determine predispositions of ice jam locations along river stretches, (iii) coupling of a river-ice hydraulic model for the channel with a floodplain model to calculate flood hazard to human life and (iv) ice-jam flood (economic) risk assessment and mapping. The research findings will advance the prediction and delineation of ice-related flooding, which will aid in the reduction of flood damages and the protection of human life along rivers prone to major ice runs and jamming events. Although applicable to all northern countries that have seasonal ice covers, the research findings will be particularly applicable to Canada, where the majority of major flood events are ice-related. Forecasting ice-jam flood events is needed to reduce economic damage and reduce impacts to human life. The tools developed in this research program will help to extend our understanding of the processes leading to severe ice-jam flooding. Many communities along northern rivers experience ice-jam floods, which are more severe than open-water floods. Many communities in Canada are currently drafting anew or updating their flood hazard mapping and risk assessments. Most focus on open-water flooding because guidance is not available to incorporate ice-related flood hazard and risk. This research will provide such guidance and contribute fundamental new insights for ice-jam flood mitigation measures and ice-jam flood risk reduction.