Ice-jam flood forecasting

这个为期五年的研究项目将使我在冰塞洪水的预测和评估方面取得进展。在北部高纬度地区，冰塞占河流洪水的40%以上。倡议者在发展冰堵塞洪水预报和评估方法方面取得了一些进展。这些方法已被纳入加拿大省政府运营的冰堵塞洪水预报系统。需要进一步的研究来完善和扩展这些方法，包括：(i)在洪水风险区域上游释放的堵塞的影响，（ii）开发冰堵塞沉积物位置的频率分布，（iii）对泛滥平原进行二维描述，以纳入冰碎片造成的危害，以及（iv）在冰堵塞洪水预测背景下计算洪水风险。研究结果将改善我们对与冰有关的洪水的预测和描述，有助于减少洪水损害，并保护容易发生重大冰流和堵塞事件的河流沿岸的人类生命。虽然该研究结果适用于所有具有季节性冰盖的北方国家，但它将特别适用于加拿大，因为加拿大的大多数重大洪水事件都与冰有关。为了减少经济损失和减少对人类生活的影响，需要对冰堵塞洪水事件进行预测。在这个研究项目中开发的工具将有助于改善和推进我们对导致严重冰塞洪水的过程的理解。北部河流沿岸的许多社区经历了冰堵塞洪水，这比开放水域的洪水更严重。加拿大的许多社区目前正在重新起草或更新他们的洪水灾害地图和风险评估。大多数关注的是开放水域的洪水，因为很少有指导方针可以将与冰有关的洪水危害和风险纳入整体洪水管理计划。这项研究将为冰塞洪水缓解措施和减少冰塞洪水风险提供额外的指导和基本的新见解。

This five-year research program will allow me to make advancements in the forecasting and assessment of ice-jam floods. Ice-jams account for over 40% of riverine floods in northern, high-latitude regions. The proponent has made some gains in the development of ice-jam flood forecasting and assessment methodologies. These methods have been incorporated in ice-jam flood forecasting systems operated by provincial governments in Canada. Additional research is required to make refinements and extensions to the methodologies including: (i) impact of the release of jams that have released upstream of the flood risk area of interest, (ii) developing frequency distributions of the location of ice-jam lodgments, (iii) two-dimensional description of the floodplain to incorporate hazard due to ice debris and (iv) calculating flood risk in an ice-jam flood forecasting context. The research findings will improve our predictions and delineations of ice-related flooding, to help in the reduction of flood damages and the protection of human life along rivers prone to major ice runs and jamming events. Although applicable to all northern countries that have seasonal ice covers, the research findings will be particularly applicable to Canada, where the majority of major flood events are ice-related. Forecasting ice-jam flood events is needed to reduce economic damage and reduce impacts to human life. The tools developed in this research program will help to improve and advance our understanding of the processes leading to severe ice-jam flooding. Many communities along northern rivers experience ice-jam floods, which are more severe than open-water floods. Many communities in Canada are currently drafting anew or updating their flood hazard mapping and risk assessments. Most focus on open-water flooding because little guidance is available to incorporate ice-related flood hazard and risk in the overall flood management plans. This research will provide additional guidance and contribute fundamental new insights for ice-jam flood mitigation measures and ice-jam flood risk reduction.