Ice-jam flood forecasting

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This five-year research program will allow me to make advancements in the forecasting and assessment of ice-jam floods. Ice-jams account for over 40% of riverine floods in northern, high-latitude regions. The proponent has made some gains in the development of ice-jam flood forecasting and assessment methodologies. These methods have been incorporated in ice-jam flood forecasting systems operated by provincial governments in Canada. Additional research is required to make refinements and extensions to the methodologies including: (i) impact of the release of jams that have released upstream of the flood risk area of interest, (ii) developing frequency distributions of the location of ice-jam lodgments, (iii) two-dimensional description of the floodplain to incorporate hazard due to ice debris and (iv) calculating flood risk in an ice-jam flood forecasting context. The research findings will improve our predictions and delineations of ice-related flooding, to help in the reduction of flood damages and the protection of human life along rivers prone to major ice runs and jamming events. Although applicable to all northern countries that have seasonal ice covers, the research findings will be particularly applicable to Canada, where the majority of major flood events are ice-related. Forecasting ice-jam flood events is needed to reduce economic damage and reduce impacts to human life. The tools developed in this research program will help to improve and advance our understanding of the processes leading to severe ice-jam flooding. Many communities along northern rivers experience ice-jam floods, which are more severe than open-water floods. Many communities in Canada are currently drafting anew or updating their flood hazard mapping and risk assessments. Most focus on open-water flooding because little guidance is available to incorporate ice-related flood hazard and risk in the overall flood management plans. This research will provide additional guidance and contribute fundamental new insights for ice-jam flood mitigation measures and ice-jam flood risk reduction.