Water Resources Management Capacity Building in the Context of Global Change

全球变化背景下的水资源管理能力建设

• 批准号: RGPIN-2016-03696
• 负责人: Simonovic, Slobodan
• 金额: $ 3.06万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636396
• 关键词: Water; Resources; Management; Capacity; Building

The overall objective of the proposed research is to devise innovative methodologies based of the use of systems analysis for supporting decision making within the paradigm of a global change modelling (GCMP) under (i) high system complexity; and (ii) high uncertainty. The methodologies will be developed to meaningfully address tough problems involving water, energy and the environment within a globally changing conditions with special emphasis on population growth and migrations, land use change and change of climatic conditions. The main goal is to design solutions that are highly resilient, sustainable and fair. This flexible GCMP approach will be driven by two main principles: (i) integration – consideration of interconnected systems such as water, population, food, energy, ecosystem, economy, and climate; and (ii) resilience – ability to withstand, respond and recover from unexpected system disturbances like unprecedented flooding and drought. A range of major advances will be made within the structure of the ANEMI model (product of earlier research and the only available model today that represents the water resources sectors as endogenously linked to the rest of the global system) to develop feedback structures between global economy and water resources management and to incorporate adaptation to water stress through economic investment in infrastructures at global and regional scales. In addition the proposed research will identify intervention options (adaptation scenarios) in various sectors and at various scales, and use improved ANEMI to assess combinations of these options that can be effective and robust across a set of alternative integrated scenarios of future water availability and use. ANEMI model use in the assessment will take into account the hierarchical structure of feedbacks, such as those existing for energy and water among the federal, provincial and local governments, for the purpose of achieving sustainable solutions. Model simulations will provide for the design of governance policies and management practices and thorough testing of alternative options. Complex problem of global water management will be assessed through feedback interactions with regional and local activities. This will make the results of the proposed research of high value to Canadians. By implementing systems thinking and acting in accordance to the guidance provided by the systems methodologies developed in this research, Canada will be in a position to take advantage of its immense water, energy and other natural resources and continue along the path of sustainable development and fair prosperity.

拟议的研究的总体目标是设计创新的方法的基础上使用系统分析，以支持决策的全球变化模型（GCMP）的范式下（一）高系统复杂性;和（ii）高不确定性。将制定各种方法，以便在全球不断变化的条件下有意义地解决涉及水、能源和环境的坚韧问题，特别强调人口增长和移徙、土地使用的变化和气候条件的变化。主要目标是设计出具有高度弹性、可持续性和公平性的解决方案。这种灵活的GCMP方法将由两个主要原则驱动：（i）整合-考虑相互关联的系统，如水，人口，粮食，能源，生态系统，经济和气候;（ii）弹性-承受，应对和从前所未有的洪水和干旱等意外系统干扰中恢复的能力。将在ANEMI模型（早期研究的产物，也是目前唯一能代表水资源部门与全球系统其他部分内在联系的模型）的结构范围内取得一系列重大进展，以发展全球经济与水资源管理之间的反馈结构，并通过在全球和区域范围内对基础设施进行经济投资，纳入对水资源压力的适应。此外，拟议的研究将确定不同部门和不同规模的干预方案（适应情景），并使用改进的ANEMI来评估这些方案的组合，这些方案在未来水供应和使用的一套替代综合情景中可能是有效和可靠的。评估中使用的ANEMI模型将考虑到反馈的层次结构，例如联邦、省和地方政府之间现有的能源和水反馈，以实现可持续的解决方案。模型模拟将为治理政策和管理做法的设计以及对备选方案的彻底测试提供条件。将通过与区域和地方活动的反馈互动来评估全球水管理的复杂问题。这将使拟议研究的结果对加拿大人具有很高的价值。通过实施系统思维，并按照本研究中制定的系统方法提供的指导采取行动，加拿大将能够利用其丰富的水、能源和其他自然资源，继续沿着可持续发展和公平繁荣的道路前进。