Systems engineering approach to the reliability of complex civil infrastructure

复杂民用基础设施可靠性的系统工程方法

• 批准号: 462879-2013
• 负责人: Simonovic, Slobodan
• 金额: $ 5.94万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=598105
• 关键词: Systems; engineering; approach; reliability; complex

The dams and hydropower industry has a demand to characterize the risk associated with its operations, and in particular, the risk of dam failure. In current practice, the capability to reliably estimate risk remains very weak. The reasons are essentially all due to the fact that the existing capability to characterize dam risk is the "extreme event" philosophy of dam safety that prevailed in the 1970's and 1980's. In terms of this philosophy, there could be no consideration of combinations of lesser floods and earthquakes. Beyond these physical dam safety concerns, this traditional philosophy does not consider operator error or procedural failures in any way, nor does it embody any consideration of institutional failures or contributions to risk. In particular the problem of "uncommon combinations of problems that individually are not uncommon" is omitted completely.

大坝和水电行业需要描述与其运营相关的风险，特别是大坝坍塌的风险。在目前的实践中，可靠地估计风险的能力仍然很弱。究其原因，基本上都是因为现有的表征大坝风险的能力是1970年的S和1980年的S盛行的大坝安全的“极端事件”哲学。按照这种哲学，不可能考虑较小的洪水和地震的组合。除了这些实际的大坝安全问题外，这种传统的哲学没有以任何方式考虑操作员错误或程序失误，也没有体现任何对体制失误或对风险的贡献的考虑。特别是，完全省略了“个别问题的不常见组合”这一问题。