Water Resources Management Capacity Building in the Context of Global Change

拟议研究的总体目标是设计以系统分析为基础的创新方法，以支持在(1)系统复杂性高和(2)不确定性高的情况下在全球变化模型(GCMP)模式下进行决策。制定这些方法是为了在全球变化的条件下有意义地解决涉及水、能源和环境的难题，特别强调人口增长和迁移、土地利用的变化和气候条件的变化。主要目标是设计具有高度弹性、可持续和公平的解决方案。这一灵活的全球综合治理办法将受到两个主要原则的推动：(I)一体化--考虑水、人口、粮食、能源、生态系统、经济和气候等相互关联的系统；(Ii)复原力--承受、应对和从前所未有的洪水和干旱等意外系统干扰中恢复的能力。将在阿内米模式(早期研究的产物，也是当今代表水资源部门与全球系统其他部分内在联系的唯一现有模式)的结构内取得一系列重大进展，以便在全球经济和水资源管理之间建立反馈结构，并通过在全球和区域范围内对基础设施进行经济投资来适应水资源压力。此外，拟议的研究将确定不同部门和不同规模的干预方案(适应方案)，并使用改进的ANEMI来评估这些方案的组合，这些方案可以在未来水的可获得性和使用量的一系列替代综合方案中有效和稳健。评估中使用的阿内米模型将考虑到反馈的等级结构，例如联邦、省和地方政府之间现有的能源和水反馈结构，目的是实现可持续的解决方案。模型模拟将提供治理政策和管理做法的设计以及对备选办法的彻底测试。将通过与区域和地方活动的反馈互动来评估全球水管理的复杂问题。这将使拟议的研究结果对加拿大人具有很高的价值。通过实施系统思维并按照本研究制定的系统方法提供的指导，加拿大将能够利用其丰富的水、能源和其他自然资源，继续沿着可持续发展和公平繁荣的道路前进。

The overall objective of the proposed research is to devise innovative methodologies based of the use of systems analysis for supporting decision making within the paradigm of a global change modelling (GCMP) under (i) high system complexity; and (ii) high uncertainty. The methodologies will be developed to meaningfully address tough problems involving water, energy and the environment within a globally changing conditions with special emphasis on population growth and migrations, land use change and change of climatic conditions. The main goal is to design solutions that are highly resilient, sustainable and fair. This flexible GCMP approach will be driven by two main principles: (i) integration – consideration of interconnected systems such as water, population, food, energy, ecosystem, economy, and climate; and (ii) resilience – ability to withstand, respond and recover from unexpected system disturbances like unprecedented flooding and drought. A range of major advances will be made within the structure of the ANEMI model (product of earlier research and the only available model today that represents the water resources sectors as endogenously linked to the rest of the global system) to develop feedback structures between global economy and water resources management and to incorporate adaptation to water stress through economic investment in infrastructures at global and regional scales. In addition the proposed research will identify intervention options (adaptation scenarios) in various sectors and at various scales, and use improved ANEMI to assess combinations of these options that can be effective and robust across a set of alternative integrated scenarios of future water availability and use. ANEMI model use in the assessment will take into account the hierarchical structure of feedbacks, such as those existing for energy and water among the federal, provincial and local governments, for the purpose of achieving sustainable solutions. Model simulations will provide for the design of governance policies and management practices and thorough testing of alternative options. Complex problem of global water management will be assessed through feedback interactions with regional and local activities. This will make the results of the proposed research of high value to Canadians. By implementing systems thinking and acting in accordance to the guidance provided by the systems methodologies developed in this research, Canada will be in a position to take advantage of its immense water, energy and other natural resources and continue along the path of sustainable development and fair prosperity.