Water Resources Management Capacity Building in the Context of Global Change

拟议研究的总体目标是设计基于使用系统分析的创新方法，以支持在(i)高系统复杂性的全球变化建模（GCMP）范式内的决策；（二）不确定性高。将拟订方法，在全球变化的条件下有意义地处理涉及水、能源和环境的棘手问题，特别强调人口增长和移徙、土地利用变化和气候条件的变化。主要目标是设计具有高度弹性、可持续性和公平性的解决方案。这种灵活的GCMP方法将由两个主要原则驱动：(i)整合——考虑相互关联的系统，如水、人口、粮食、能源、生态系统、经济和气候；（ii）恢复能力——抵御、应对和从前所未有的洪水和干旱等意外系统干扰中恢复的能力。在ANEMI模型（早期研究的产物，也是目前唯一可用的代表水资源部门与全球系统其他部分内在联系的模型）的结构内将取得一系列重大进展，以发展全球经济与水资源管理之间的反馈结构，并通过对全球和区域规模的基础设施进行经济投资来适应水资源压力。此外，拟议的研究将确定不同部门和不同规模的干预方案（适应方案），并使用改进的ANEMI来评估这些方案的组合，这些方案可以在未来水的可获得性和利用的一系列替代综合方案中有效和稳健。在评估中使用的ANEMI模型将考虑到反馈的等级结构，例如联邦、省和地方政府之间现有的能源和水的反馈结构，以便实现可持续的解决方案。模型模拟将提供治理策略和管理实践的设计，以及对备选方案的全面测试。将通过与区域和地方活动的反馈互动来评估全球水管理的复杂问题。这将使拟议的研究结果对加拿大人具有很高的价值。通过按照这项研究中制定的系统方法所提供的指导执行系统思考和行动，加拿大将能够利用其巨大的水、能源和其他自然资源，并继续沿着可持续发展和公平繁荣的道路前进。

The overall objective of the proposed research is to devise innovative methodologies based of the use of systems analysis for supporting decision making within the paradigm of a global change modelling (GCMP) under (i) high system complexity; and (ii) high uncertainty. The methodologies will be developed to meaningfully address tough problems involving water, energy and the environment within a globally changing conditions with special emphasis on population growth and migrations, land use change and change of climatic conditions. The main goal is to design solutions that are highly resilient, sustainable and fair. This flexible GCMP approach will be driven by two main principles: (i) integration – consideration of interconnected systems such as water, population, food, energy, ecosystem, economy, and climate; and (ii) resilience – ability to withstand, respond and recover from unexpected system disturbances like unprecedented flooding and drought. A range of major advances will be made within the structure of the ANEMI model (product of earlier research and the only available model today that represents the water resources sectors as endogenously linked to the rest of the global system) to develop feedback structures between global economy and water resources management and to incorporate adaptation to water stress through economic investment in infrastructures at global and regional scales. In addition the proposed research will identify intervention options (adaptation scenarios) in various sectors and at various scales, and use improved ANEMI to assess combinations of these options that can be effective and robust across a set of alternative integrated scenarios of future water availability and use. ANEMI model use in the assessment will take into account the hierarchical structure of feedbacks, such as those existing for energy and water among the federal, provincial and local governments, for the purpose of achieving sustainable solutions. Model simulations will provide for the design of governance policies and management practices and thorough testing of alternative options. Complex problem of global water management will be assessed through feedback interactions with regional and local activities. This will make the results of the proposed research of high value to Canadians. By implementing systems thinking and acting in accordance to the guidance provided by the systems methodologies developed in this research, Canada will be in a position to take advantage of its immense water, energy and other natural resources and continue along the path of sustainable development and fair prosperity.