Reliability analysis and maintenance optimization based on advanced prognostics methodologies

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Reliability measures the ability of a component or system performing its intended functions, and it is one of the most critical performance measures of engineering systems such as aircraft systems, manufacturing systems and wind power systems. Maintenance optimization aims to improve reliability and reduce the overall cost. In conventional reliability analysis, failure data are mainly analyzed using statistical methods, and reliability performance is estimated for component population rather than individual units. The availability of condition monitoring data, such as vibration and acoustic data, make it possible to obtain a far more accurate reliability prediction for individual components, and there's great potential to subsequently achieve more effective system reliability analysis and maintenance management. The long-term objective of this research program is to develop an integrated framework and a suite of methods and tools for accurate reliability analysis and effective maintenance and logistics optimization based on accurate prognostics information, and apply them to engineering systems particularly renewable energy, manufacturing, and aerospace systems. The short-term objectives are to greatly advance the highly promising integrated prognostics so that its methods and tools can be applied to complex equipments in broad industry applications, establish a unified system reliability analysis framework and methods based on component prognostics information, generate more accurate and efficient CBM optimization methods so that they are applicable to complex systems, and develop effective methods for wind energy system reliability enhancement considering their special time-varying loading characteristics and complex structures. Results from this research will improve reliability, safety and cost-effectiveness of engineering systems, and generate major economic benefits for Canadian renewable energy, manufacturing, aerospace, and oil and gas industries. Highly qualified personnel will be trained.