Examining the glacial cycle phase space through data-integrated glacial systems modelling

通过数据集成冰川系统建模检查冰川循环相空间

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06658
• 负责人: Tarasov, Lev
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2018-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=666548
• 关键词: Examining; glacial; cycle; phase; space

The past is our fuzzy window to the future. Through this window, tantalizing discrepancies point to cracks***in our understanding of the coupled ice, earth, and climate system. The last 130,000 year history of ice and***climate change offers major changes in the state of the climate system as well as examples of abrupt tipping***point behaviour.******The dynamical source of the variability of this system is still poorly understood. There are also perplexing***shortfalls in explaining inferred global mean sea level at Last Glacial Maximum (the problem of “missing***ice”) as well the source of an inferred 6-10 m higher sea level during the last (Eemian) interglacial, about***125,000 years ago.******Scientific assessments of potential climate change rely heavily on climate models. Though replication of***present-day climate is a challenging test for models, it is only a limited test since these models are already***tuned to fit the present. To answer questions related to potentially large changes in the climate system***(especially so-called tipping points), models are best tested against the past.******Critical to these tests is a confident inference of the past change in topography, ice cover, and associated***meltwater drainage into the ocean. The proposed research will significantly refine these inferences through***statistically robust integration of advanced computed models and large diverse sets of paleo data. This***will either resolve or further clarify the missing ice issue. The research program will also apply these***refined ice chronologies to direct examination of variability in the glacial ice and climate system with models***encompassing the climate, ice sheet, and earth components.******By deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to which***current models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events.***These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties concerning both future ice sheet evolution***and associated ice sheet interactions with the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climate***change assessments.

过去是我们通向未来的模糊之窗。通过这个窗口，诱人的差异指出了我们对冰、地球和气候系统耦合的理解中的裂缝***。过去 13 万年的冰和***气候变化历史提供了气候系统状态的重大变化以及突然的临界点行为的例子。******对该系统变异性的动力来源仍然知之甚少。在解释推断的末次盛冰期全球平均海平面（“失踪***冰”的问题）以及推断的大约 ***125,000 年前末次（埃米安）间冰期海平面升高 6-10 m 的来源方面，也存在令人困惑的***缺陷。****** 对潜在气候变化的科学评估在很大程度上依赖于气候模型。尽管复制***当今的气候对模型来说是一项具有挑战性的测试，但这只是一个有限的测试，因为这些模型已经***调整以适应当前的情况。为了回答与气候系统潜在巨大变化***（尤其是所谓的临界点）相关的问题，最好针对过去的模型进行测试。******这些测试的关键是对过去地形、冰盖和相关***融水排入海洋的变化进行可靠的推断。拟议的研究将通过先进计算模型和大量不同古数据集的统计稳健集成来显着完善这些推论。这***将解决或进一步澄清失踪的冰问题。该研究计划还将应用这些***精细的冰年代学，通过模型***直接检查冰川冰和气候系统的变化，包括气候、冰盖和地球组成部分。******通过在这个框架内部署日益复杂的模型，我们将测试***当前的模型和理解可以在多大程度上复制和解释过去的冰盖演化和不稳定事件。***这些测试反过来将有助于估计 有关未来冰盖演化***以及相关冰盖与气候系统相互作用的不确定性，解决了当前气候***变化评估中的重大差距。