Constraining uncertainty in glacial system evolution

限制冰川系统演化的不确定性

• 批准号: 341699-2012
• 负责人: Tarasov, Lev
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=572345
• 关键词: Constraining; uncertainty; glacial; system; evolution

Fast, non-linear changes in the ice and climate systems potentially offer the highest-impact routes to changes in the earth system, but are also the hardest aspects of earth system processes to predict. It is a very challenging task to quantify the probabilities of such events occurring in such complex and highly interconnected systems as ice and climate. Yet, a defining feature of good science is the rigorous quantification of uncertainty. Deficiencies in such quantification arguably plays a significant role in the current debate over climate change. This research will take a multifaceted approach to inferring uncertainty estimates for the evolution of the glacial (ice and climate) system, especially in the context of potential rapid changes. We will further develop a statistically rigorous calibration methodology to integrate observational data and modelling to constrain past and future evolution of the ice and climate system. Application of this methodology to the past will build a clearer picture of the state of the glacial system before and after major instability events. Furthermore, by deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to which current models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events. These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties relating to future ice-sheet evolution and associated interactions with the rest of the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climate change assessments. More generally, the work will be a case study in improving methodologies for rigorously analysing the dynamics of complex non-linear physical systems in an observation-grounded manner.

冰和气候系统的快速非线性变化可能为地球系统的变化提供影响最大的途径，但也是地球系统过程中最难预测的方面。在像冰和气候这样复杂且高度相互关联的系统中，量化此类事件发生的概率是一项非常具有挑战性的任务。然而，好的科学的一个决定性特征是对不确定性的严格量化。这种量化的缺陷可以说在当前关于气候变化的辩论中发挥了重要作用。