Constraining uncertainty in glacial system evolution

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Fast, non-linear changes in the ice and climate systems potentially offer the highest-impact routes to changes in the earth system, but are also the hardest aspects of earth system processes to predict. It is a very challenging task to quantify the probabilities of such events occurring in such complex and highly interconnected systems as ice and climate. Yet, a defining feature of good science is the rigorous quantification of uncertainty. Deficiencies in such quantification arguably plays a significant role in the current debate over climate change. This research will take a multifaceted approach to inferring uncertainty estimates for the evolution of the glacial (ice and climate) system, especially in the context of potential rapid changes. We will further develop a statistically rigorous calibration methodology to integrate observational data and modelling to constrain past and future evolution of the ice and climate system. Application of this methodology to the past will build a clearer picture of the state of the glacial system before and after major instability events. Furthermore, by deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to which current models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events. These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties relating to future ice-sheet evolution and associated interactions with the rest of the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climate change assessments. More generally, the work will be a case study in improving methodologies for rigorously analysing the dynamics of complex non-linear physical systems in an observation-grounded manner.