Constraining uncertainty in glacial system evolution

限制冰川系统演化的不确定性

• 批准号: 341699-2012
• 负责人: Tarasov, Lev
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2015-01-01 至 2016-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=572345
• 关键词: Constraining; uncertainty; glacial; system; evolution

Fast, non-linear changes in the ice and climate systems potentially offer the highest-impact routes to changes in the earth system, but are also the hardest aspects of earth system processes to predict. It is a very challenging task to quantify the probabilities of such events occurring in such complex and highly interconnected systems as ice and climate. Yet, a defining feature of good science is the rigorous quantification of uncertainty. Deficiencies in such quantification arguably plays a significant role in the current debate over climate change. This research will take a multifaceted approach to inferring uncertainty estimates for the evolution of the glacial (ice and climate) system, especially in the context of potential rapid changes. We will further develop a statistically rigorous calibration methodology to integrate observational data and modelling to constrain past and future evolution of the ice and climate system. Application of this methodology to the past will build a clearer picture of the state of the glacial system before and after major instability events. Furthermore, by deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to which current models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events. These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties relating to future ice-sheet evolution and associated interactions with the rest of the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climate change assessments. More generally, the work will be a case study in improving methodologies for rigorously analysing the dynamics of complex non-linear physical systems in an observation-grounded manner.

冰和气候系统中的快速，非线性变化有可能为地球系统变化提供最大影响的途径，但也是地球系统过程中最难预测的方面。 量化在冰和气候等复杂且高度相互连接的系统中发生此类事件的概率是一项非常具有挑战性的任务。然而，良好科学的一个定义特征是对不确定性的严格量化。 这种定量的缺陷可以说在当前关于气候变化的辩论中起着重要作用。 这项研究将采用多方面的方法来推断冰川（冰和气候）系统演变的不确定性估计，尤其是在潜在快速变化的背景下。我们将进一步开发一种统计严格的校准方法，以整合观察数据和建模，以限制冰和气候系统的过去和未来演变。 在重大不稳定事件之前和之后，将这种方法应用于过去将更清晰地了解冰川系统的状态。此外，通过在此框架内部署越来越复杂的模型，我们将测试当前模型和理解可以复制并解释过去的冰盖演变和不稳定性事件的程度。这些测试反过来将有助于估计与未来的冰盖演化以及与其他气候系统的相关相互作用有关的不确定性，从而解决了当前气候变化评估中的主要差距。 更一般而言，这项工作将是一个案例研究，用于改善严格分析复杂非线性物理系统动态的方法，以观察的方式进行分析。