Examining the glacial cycle phase space through data-integrated glacial systems modelling

通过数据集成冰川系统建模检查冰川循环相空间

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-06658
• 负责人: Tarasov, Lev
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=683458
• 关键词: Examining; glacial; cycle; phase; space

The past is our fuzzy window to the future. Through this window, tantalizing discrepancies point to cracks***in our understanding of the coupled ice, earth, and climate system. The last 130,000 year history of ice and***climate change offers major changes in the state of the climate system as well as examples of abrupt tipping***point behaviour.******The dynamical source of the variability of this system is still poorly understood. There are also perplexing***shortfalls in explaining inferred global mean sea level at Last Glacial Maximum (the problem of “missing***ice”) as well the source of an inferred 6-10 m higher sea level during the last (Eemian) interglacial, about***125,000 years ago.******Scientific assessments of potential climate change rely heavily on climate models. Though replication of***present-day climate is a challenging test for models, it is only a limited test since these models are already***tuned to fit the present. To answer questions related to potentially large changes in the climate system***(especially so-called tipping points), models are best tested against the past.******Critical to these tests is a confident inference of the past change in topography, ice cover, and associated***meltwater drainage into the ocean. The proposed research will significantly refine these inferences through***statistically robust integration of advanced computed models and large diverse sets of paleo data. This***will either resolve or further clarify the missing ice issue. The research program will also apply these***refined ice chronologies to direct examination of variability in the glacial ice and climate system with models***encompassing the climate, ice sheet, and earth components.******By deploying increasingly sophisticated models within this framework, we will test the extent to which***current models and understanding can replicate and explain past ice sheet evolution and instability events.***These tests will in turn facilitate the estimation of uncertainties concerning both future ice sheet evolution***and associated ice sheet interactions with the climate system, addressing a major gap in current climate***change assessments.

过去是我们通往未来的模糊窗口。通过这个窗口，诱人的差异指出了我们对冰，地球和气候系统耦合的理解时的裂缝***。冰和***气候变化的最后130,000年的历史为气候系统状态提供了重大变化，以及突然倾斜的示例***点行为。在解释最终冰川最大的全球平均海平面（“缺失***冰”的问题）以及在最后一次（EEMIAN）间冰期中，大约*** 125,000年前的冰川中，可以推断出6-10 m高的海平面，这也是令人困惑的*** ***短缺。尽管***当前气候的复制是模型的挑战测试，但这只是一个有限的测试，因为这些模型已经被调整为适合当前的测试。为了回答与气候系统可能发生的大型变化有关的问题****（尤其是所谓的临界点），最好对过去进行测试。****对这些测试至关重要的是对过去的变化的自信推断，对地形，冰盖和相关的***融合水流流入了海洋。拟议的研究将通过****统计上强大的计算模型和大型潜水员的古数据集合来显着完善这些推论。这个***将解决或进一步阐明缺失的冰问题。该研究计划还将应用这些***精制的冰时间学来直接检查冰川冰和气候系统中的可变性*** ***包括气候，冰原和地球成分的模型。关于未来的冰盖进化****以及与气候系统相关的冰盖相互作用，解决了当前气候****变化评估的主要差距。