Constraining uncertainty in glacial system evolution

限制冰川系统演化的不确定性

• 批准号: 341699-2012
• 负责人: Tarasov, Lev
• 金额: $ 1.97万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=595465
• 关键词: Constraining; uncertainty; glacial; system; evolution

Fast, non-linear changes in the ice and climate systems potentially offer the highest-impact routes to changes in the earth system, but are also the hardest aspects of earth system processes to predict. It is a very challenging task to quantify the probabilities of such events occurring in such complex and highly interconnected systems as ice and climate. Yet, a defining feature of good science is the rigorous quantification of uncertainty. Deficiencies in such quantification arguably plays a significant role in the current debate over climate change.

冰和气候系统的快速、非线性变化可能为地球系统的变化提供最具影响力的途径，但也是地球系统过程中最难预测的方面。量化在冰和气候这样复杂和高度相互关联的系统中发生此类事件的概率是一项非常具有挑战性的任务。然而，优秀科学的一个决定性特征是对不确定性的严格量化。这种量化的缺陷可以说在当前关于气候变化的辩论中发挥了重要作用。