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Development of a framework to quantify low-flow risks and uncertainty related to climate change in a Northern Quebec River for hydropower generation

开发一个框架来量化魁北克北部河流水力发电与气候变化相关的低流量风险和不确定性

基本信息

批准号：
538238-2019
负责人：
Arsenault, Richard
金额：
$ 1.82万
依托单位：
École de technologie supérieure
依托单位国家：
加拿大
项目类别：
Engage Grants Program
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
加拿大
起止时间：
2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=680474
关键词：
Development framework quantify low flow

项目摘要

Climate change impacts have already been detected in many regions of the globe. For Northern Canada, the rate at which the climate is changing has exceeded other regions by a wide margin. These changes are beginning to modify the historically expected hydrological regimes. For hydropower companies operating in these conditions, it is critical to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydropower system's operation. For example, if low-flow conditions are more frequent, it is possible that the turbines will not be able to meet their production targets and might even be forced to shut down for extended periods. This research proposal aims to develop a framework allowing to assess the impacts of climate change on different low-flow thresholds for designing and operating hydropower generation stations. More specifically, the project will quantify the uncertainty related to limitations in the hydrometeorological datasets, to climate change and to specific low-flow indices. An ensemble of hydrological models, reanalysis product datasets and climate change scenarios will be combined to evaluate the contributions to the overall uncertainty on the various low-flow indices.It is expected that the project will aid in decision-making regarding the design and operation of current and future hydropower stations in Northern Canada, leading to greener energy sources for the local communities. It will also help stakeholders make better-informed decisions regarding the feasibility of implementing hydropower in isolated markets.

在全球许多地区已经发现了气候变化的影响。在加拿大北部，气候变化的速度远远超过其他地区。这些变化开始改变历史上预期的水文制度。对于在这些条件下运行的水电公司来说，评估气候变化对水电系统运行的影响至关重要。例如，如果低流量条件更频繁，则涡轮机可能无法满足其生产目标，甚至可能被迫关闭较长时间。本研究计划旨在建立一个框架，以评估气候变化对设计和运行水电站的不同低流量阈值的影响。更具体地说，该项目将量化与水文气象数据集的限制、气候变化和特定低流量指数有关的不确定性。将综合水文模型、再分析产品数据集和气候变化情景，评估各种低流量指数对总体不确定性的贡献。预计该项目将有助于加拿大北部当前和未来水电站的设计和运营决策，为当地社区带来更绿色的能源。它还将帮助利益相关者就在孤立市场实施水电的可行性做出更明智的决策。