Development of a framework to quantify low-flow risks and uncertainty related to climate change in a Northern Quebec River for hydropower generation

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Climate change impacts have already been detected in many regions of the globe. For Northern Canada, the rate at which the climate is changing has exceeded other regions by a wide margin. These changes are beginning to modify the historically expected hydrological regimes. For hydropower companies operating in these conditions, it is critical to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydropower system's operation. For example, if low-flow conditions are more frequent, it is possible that the turbines will not be able to meet their production targets and might even be forced to shut down for extended periods. This research proposal aims to develop a framework allowing to assess the impacts of climate change on different low-flow thresholds for designing and operating hydropower generation stations. More specifically, the project will quantify the uncertainty related to limitations in the hydrometeorological datasets, to climate change and to specific low-flow indices. An ensemble of hydrological models, reanalysis product datasets and climate change scenarios will be combined to evaluate the contributions to the overall uncertainty on the various low-flow indices.It is expected that the project will aid in decision-making regarding the design and operation of current and future hydropower stations in Northern Canada, leading to greener energy sources for the local communities. It will also help stakeholders make better-informed decisions regarding the feasibility of implementing hydropower in isolated markets.