Prediction and predictability of climate extremes

极端气候的预测和可预测性

• 批准号: RGPIN-2018-05255
• 负责人: Oliver, Eric
• 金额: $ 2.19万
• 依托单位: Dalhousie University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2019-01-01 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=683584
• 关键词: Prediction; predictability; climate; extremes

Climate extremes have significant impacts on environmental and social systems. Heatwaves can cause crop failures, deaths, and large-scale power outages; and extreme precipitation can cause flooding and major infrastructure damage. In the ocean, marine heatwaves have led to observable redistributions of marine species, reconfigurations of ecosystems, and economic losses in fisheries and aquaculture industries. It is likely that global warming has altered the frequency, duration and intensity of climate extremes globally, and will continue to do so in the future. Canada in particular faces major challenges and opportunities due to changes in extreme events under climate change. Therefore it is important, ecologically and economically, that we understand the historical context and predictability of climate extremes. This would improve our ability to understand future changes and uncertainties in climate extremes over both the near-term (weeks to seasons) and longer term (years to decades).******In the long-term, the proposed research program will investigate the prediction and predictability of extreme events in the ocean and atmosphere. Predictability is related to the theoretical upper limit on what it is possible to predict, while prediction has to do with our technical ability to actually forecast future events. The short-term objectives over the next five years include the examination of the historical variability, seasonal predictions, and future projections, both globally and in the Canadian region, of ocean temperature extremes, atmospheric heatwaves, extreme precipitation and storms, as well as the impact on northern and indigenous communities. These goals will be achieved through the synthesis of numerical ocean and climate modelling, statistical analysis of observations, and the application of physically-informed theories.******Climate extremes have dramatic impacts on natural and human systems across Canada. However, there is uncertainty about how extreme events might change under anthropogenic climate change as well as their predictability due to both anthropogenic and natural variability. Understanding drivers of historical variability and projected future changes in climate extremes will provide us with predictability not only of the physical event, but also the associated impacts on marine and terrestrial ecology and biodiversity and human systems such as infrastructure and health. This information can then be used by all government sectors (Federal, Provincial, Municipal, indigenous) and several industries (fisheries, aquaculture, agriculture, etc) to inform planning strategies and development.

极端气候对环境和社会系统有重大影响。热浪可能导致农作物歉收、死亡和大规模停电;极端降水可能导致洪水和重大基础设施损坏。在海洋中，海洋热浪导致了可观察到的海洋物种的重新分布、生态系统的重新配置以及渔业和水产养殖业的经济损失。全球变暖可能已经改变了全球极端气候的频率、持续时间和强度，并将在未来继续这样做。由于气候变化下极端事件的变化，加拿大尤其面临重大挑战和机遇。因此，从生态和经济角度来看，我们必须了解极端气候的历史背景和可预测性。这将提高我们理解未来变化和短期（几周到几季）和长期（几年到几十年）极端气候不确定性的能力。从长远来看，拟议的研究计划将调查海洋和大气中极端事件的预测和可预测性。可预测性与理论上可以预测的上限有关，而预测则与我们实际预测未来事件的技术能力有关。今后五年的短期目标包括审查全球和加拿大区域海洋极端温度、大气热浪、极端降水和风暴的历史变化、季节预测和未来预测，以及对北方和土著社区的影响。这些目标将通过综合海洋和气候数值模拟、观测数据的统计分析以及物理信息理论的应用来实现。极端气候对加拿大的自然和人类系统产生了巨大影响。然而，由于人为和自然的变异性，极端事件在人为气候变化下可能如何变化以及其可预测性存在不确定性。了解历史上气候变化的驱动因素和预测的未来极端气候变化将使我们不仅能够预测物理事件，而且能够预测对海洋和陆地生态和生物多样性以及基础设施和健康等人类系统的相关影响。所有政府部门（联邦、省、市、土著）和若干行业（渔业、水产养殖业、农业等）都可以使用这些信息，为规划战略和发展提供信息。