Is it possible to control avian influenza virus transmission?

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Avian Influenza (AI) has emerged as an economically important disease of poultry. Avian influenza viruses (AIV) can be transmitted via various routes, including oral-fecal and airborne routes, however, the relative impact of different routes in AIV outbreaks is unknown. AIV spread is currently controlled by strict biosecurity measures, although in some of the recent outbreaks, e.g. the 2015 US outbreak, it was clear that these measures were not entirely effective at control of virus spread. Vaccination or other immune-based strategies may offer a complementary approach to biosecurity. In fact, the work done by our lab has already shown that using immune enhancing molecules, either as stand-alone antiviral compounds or as vaccine adjuvants, can reduce virus shedding. However, it is not clear whether a reduction in virus shedding can translate into a reduction in virus transmission experimentally or at the field level. In the proposed research, we aim to use the knowledge we have generated over the last several years and develop and optimize ways to confer immunity in chickens against the virus and curtail virus replication, shedding and transmission to other chickens. To assess efficacy of our proposed approaches in disrupting transmission of AIV at the flock level, we will develop mathematical models to simulate virus transmission under experimental conditions. We will then use the knowledge generated using these models and laboratory data to create a decision support system (DSS) framework for control of AIV. The proposed decision support will take into account data derived from experimental challenge work, farm level simulation as well as several other data sources, including weather and climate, migratory birds, and poultry trade. This research should provide the information needed by stakeholders, including CFIA and poultry industry, as part of their decision- making process for dealing with future outbreaks of AIV.