Robust State Estimation in Uncertain Environments Using Point Process Models

状态估计的目的是减少传感器测量中噪声的影响，并使用特定的系统和测量模型提取感兴趣对象的固定或时变参数。噪声抑制是必要的，不仅因为没有完美的传感器，还因为我们对任何未知系统及其参数的知识或模型假设是不精确的。估计器考虑了模型的不确定性和噪声统计，以便按照某种最优准则来最优地估计感兴趣的对象的参数。虽然状态估计通常只考虑系统(或模型)噪声和测量噪声的影响，但在估计运动对象随时间的状态时，目标跟踪考虑由于遗漏检测、错误警报和来自其他感兴趣对象的干扰而产生的额外的测量来源不确定性。在目标跟踪中，状态估计的目标是减轻模型和传感器噪声以及测量来源不确定性的影响。*随着负担得起的传感器(如照相机、声纳浮标、卫星接收器)的出现，以状态估计和目标跟踪为目标的传感器处理已变得普遍。这些传感器的无处不在和负担得起的性质导致了额外的不确定性，到目前为止，文献中还没有适当地解决这些不确定性。在使用只有一个或几个传感器的昂贵雷达系统的传感器处理中，已经有效地对传感器偏差、杂波、电子对抗和其他干扰等系统误差进行了建模和处理。但是，考虑到可用的大量不同种类的传感器，这些额外的不确定性来源还没有被建模或处理得最好。具体来说，我们将解决以下问题：1)缓解和利用各种环境条件来改善跟踪结果；2)在强杂波环境下对低可观测目标进行检测前跟踪；3)将状态估计与传感器管理相结合；4)借助不确定的外部数据源(如地图、地形数据)进行约束状态估计和预测。我们的解决方法是基于点过程模型和分析组合(AC)形式，这为处理大规模问题中的各种不确定性提供了一种有效的机制。为了提供一个全面的解决方案，我们将对传感器内部和外部的各种形式的不确定性进行建模，开发健壮的算法以最大限度地减少传感器的努力，并使用AC形式的扩展来量化新算法的性能。除了推进最先进的技术，该项目还将在对加拿大至关重要的领域培养一批高素质的人员。

The objective of state estimation is to mitigate the effects of noise in sensor measurements and extract the fixed or time-varying parameters of an object of interest using certain system and measurement models. Noise mitigation is necessary not only because no sensor is perfect, but also because our knowledge or model assumptions about any unknown system and its parameters are imprecise. The estimator considers the model uncertainties and noise statistics in order to optimally estimate the parameters of the subject of interest to some optimality criterion. While state estimation typically considers only the effects of system (or model) noise and measurement noise, in estimating the state of a moving object over time, target tracking considers additional measurement-origin uncertainties due to missing detections, false alarms, and interference from other objects of interest. In target tracking, the objective of state estimation is then to mitigate the effects of model and sensor noise and those of measurement-origin uncertainties. ******With the emergence of affordable sensors (e.g., cameras, sonobuoys, satellite receivers), sensor processing with the objective of state estimation and target tracking has become common. The ubiquitous and affordable nature of these sensors results in additional uncertainties that have not been addressed properly in the literature to date. In sensor processing where expensive radar systems with only one or a handful of sensors are used, systemic errors such as sensor biases, clutter, electronic countermeasures, and other interference have been effectively modeled and addressed. But, given the large number of heterogeneous sensors available, these additional sources of uncertainties have not been modeled or addressed optimally. This situation provides the motivation for the proposed work.******Specifically, we will address the following problems: 1) mitigating and taking advantage of various environmental conditions to improve tracking results; 2) track-before-detect for low-observable targets in the presence of heavy clutter; 3) integration of state estimation with sensor management; and 4) constrained state estimation and prediction with the aid of uncertain external data sources (e.g., maps, terrain data). Our solution methodology is based on Point Process models and the Analytic Combinatorics (AC) formalism, which provide an efficient mechanism for working with a wide range of uncertainties in large-scale problems. To provide a comprehensive solution, we will model various forms of uncertainties that are internal and external to sensors, develop robust algorithms to minimize the efforts of sensors, and quantify the performance of the new algorithms using extensions to the AC formalism. In addition to advancing the state-of-the-art, the project will also produce a number of highly qualified personnel in areas of critical importance to Canada.