Watershed Water Security Assessment Under Climate Change and Urbanization Pressures

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Since the 19th century, the Great Lakes Basin has been experiencing large changes in surrounding land use, first from the pre-development landscape to agriculture, and now, to urbanization. These changes are substantially impacting the water quality and quantity of the receiving waters, both instream and within the Great Lakes. Lake Erie is a dramatic example of such impacts, with constant resurgence of different forms of algae and anoxic conditions, indicating that the lake is not in a healthy state. Other Great Lakes, and in particular, Lake Ontario, are not lagging much behind, especially with the changing climate. As a consequence, major concerns are evident, regarding source water protection, environmental impacts, recreational issues, and economic concerns. The results are causing huge water security issues. To facilitate improved understanding of water quality issues in Lake Ontario, this proposal involves working with Credit Valley Conservation authority, to develop the capability to use the MIKE model platform, to simulate water quality, quantity and other aquatic ecosystem-related processes. With the capabilities provided by the MIKE model platform, the capability will exist to evaluate the spectrum of pollutant discharges, spills, impacts of climate change, and the influence of urbanization pressures, as they evolve. This type of advanced modeling capability will assist research on the spectrum of influences both existing and future, which will impact the quality of the waterbodies.