Watershed Water Security Assessment Under Climate Change and Urbanization Pressures

自19世纪世纪以来，五大湖盆地周围的土地利用发生了巨大变化，首先是从开发前的景观到农业，现在是城市化。这些变化正在对境内和五大湖内受纳沃茨的水质和水量产生重大影响。伊利湖就是这种影响的一个戏剧性例子，不同形式的藻类和缺氧条件不断复苏，表明湖泊并不处于健康状态。其他五大湖，特别是安大略湖，并没有落后太多，特别是随着气候的变化。因此，在水源保护、环境影响、娱乐问题和经济问题方面，主要关切是显而易见的。 结果造成了巨大的水安全问题。 为了促进对安大略湖水质问题的更好理解，本提案涉及与信用谷保护局合作，开发使用MIKE模型平台的能力，以模拟水质、水量和其他水生生态系统相关过程。利用MIKE模型平台提供的能力，将有能力评估污染物排放、溢漏、气候变化的影响以及城市化压力的影响的范围。 这种先进的建模能力将有助于研究现有和未来的影响范围，这将影响水体的质量。

Since the 19th century, the Great Lakes Basin has been experiencing large changes in surrounding land use, first from the pre-development landscape to agriculture, and now, to urbanization. These changes are substantially impacting the water quality and quantity of the receiving waters, both instream and within the Great Lakes. Lake Erie is a dramatic example of such impacts, with constant resurgence of different forms of algae and anoxic conditions, indicating that the lake is not in a healthy state. Other Great Lakes, and in particular, Lake Ontario, are not lagging much behind, especially with the changing climate. As a consequence, major concerns are evident, regarding source water protection, environmental impacts, recreational issues, and economic concerns. The results are causing huge water security issues. To facilitate improved understanding of water quality issues in Lake Ontario, this proposal involves working with Credit Valley Conservation authority, to develop the capability to use the MIKE model platform, to simulate water quality, quantity and other aquatic ecosystem-related processes. With the capabilities provided by the MIKE model platform, the capability will exist to evaluate the spectrum of pollutant discharges, spills, impacts of climate change, and the influence of urbanization pressures, as they evolve. This type of advanced modeling capability will assist research on the spectrum of influences both existing and future, which will impact the quality of the waterbodies.