Electric Bus Transit System in Canadian Cities: Adaptive Network Analysis and Optimization Toolkit

加拿大68亿美元的公共汽车运输服务是加拿大城市的基本组成部分。它每年提供超过210万人次的出行，为2200多万加拿大人提供交通便利。然而，公交服务贡献了加拿大总温室气体（GHG）排放量的近12%。随着加拿大寻求履行其《巴黎协定》的承诺，对公共汽车运输服务电气化的需求不断增加，以减少与交通相关的温室气体排放。公共交通的电气化也将受益于加拿大清洁的发电概况，平均碳排放强度非常低，为167亿吨二氧化碳当量/千兆瓦时。因此，实施电动巴士（e-Bus）运输将消除大约85%的与运输有关的温室气体排放，大大提高空气质量，改善公众健康。

The $6.8 billion Canadian bus transit service represents a fundamental component of Canadian cities. It provides over 2.1 million trips every year and offers mobility and accessibility to over 22 million Canadians. However, the bus transit service contributes to almost 12% of Canada's overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As Canada looks to meet its Paris Agreement commitment, there is an increasing demand for the electrification of bus transit service to reduce transit-related GHG emissions. The electrification of bus transit will also benefit from the clean Canadian electricity generation profile that has, on average, a very low carbon emission intensity of 167 tCO2e/GWh. Therefore, the implementation of electric bus (e-Bus) transit would eliminate approximately 85% of transit-related GHG emissions, substantially enhancing air quality and improving public health. In this respect, Canadian transit stakeholders are facing unprecedented opportunities to implementing the new technology, yet challenges are inherent. This is mainly because the current bus transit service is designed on the merits of the internal combustion engine, which offers, compared to e-Bus, a significantly different operational profile and energy demand. The proposed research program is structured to enable the utilization of e-Buses in the Canadian transit service by developing an adaptive e-Bus system design toolkit. This toolkit will aid the decision-making process of designing, configuring, and operating an e-Bus transit system. The three interrelated focus areas of the proposed research program are developed to address key challenges hindering the utilization of e-Buses. FOCUS AREA I will develop advanced spatiotemporal simulation models for e-Bus operation on a full-transit network. The simulation models will quantify the operational efficiency of the e-Bus at a network-level across various Canadian transit networks. FOCUS AREA II will include the development of optimization models that quantify the optimal e-Bus system-level configuration. In addition, it will involve the quantification of e-Bus system robustness at different transit networks. FOCUS AREA III will aim at developing multivariate data analysis prediction models, which will enable the configuration of the e-Bus system at any transit network. These models will facilitate the development of an adaptive generic e-Bus system design toolkit. Overall, the profound socio-economic and environmental impacts of bus transit GHG emissions necessitate a paradigm shift towards an e-Bus transit system with zero tailpipe emission. The proposed research program will provide direct and robust decision-support tool for implementing, operating and optimizing an e-Bus transit system in Canadian cities. It will help industries and different levels of government in Canada to advance the utilization of e-Bus in transit.