Predictive analysis and quality assessment in statistical learning

预测建模是数据挖掘和统计学习领域的一个中心话题，研究人员和从业人员寻求先进的分析工具和计算方法，以更好地利用数据资源。在许多应用中，考虑到不同类型和特征的数据，开发有效的系统至关重要。我提出的研究计划，预计将在这一研究领域作出重大贡献，通过开发和应用的分析方法和计算方法在统计学习和评估过程的研究。更具体地说，我和我的研究团队将专注于以下三个主题：（1）概率分类器可靠性的评估/改进;（2）保险中的稀疏标记数据分析;（3）预训练语言模型在自动调查编码中的应用。主题（1）研究预测模型评估，特别关注概率多项式分类器。主题（1）的研究成果将有助于监督分类中预测不确定性评估的理论和方法的发展。在主题（2）中，根据最近大型变额年金投资组合估值的趋势，将设计和研究新的有效数据挖掘框架，以减轻该问题的繁重计算挑战。我提出的研究计划的另一个贡献，也是主题（3）的重点，是让调查研究人员更深入地了解最近的预训练语言模型和有效调查编码的工具。这项研究将为包括数据挖掘，保险/金融和商业分析在内的各个领域的研究人员和从业人员提供创新见解，并培养高素质的人才，他们将准备在相关研究领域和高科技行业中发挥领导作用。

Predictive modeling is a central topic in the fields of data mining and statistical learning, where researchers and practitioners seek the advanced analytic tools and computational methods for better use of data resources. In many applications, it is of utmost importance to develop effective systems taking different types and characteristics of data into account. My proposed research program is expected to make significant contributions in this research field through the development and application of analytical approaches and computational methodologies in the study of statistical learning and assessment processes. More specifically, my research team and I will concentrate on the following three themes: (1) Assessment/improvement of the reliability of probabilistic classifiers; (2) Sparse-labeled data analysis in insurance; and (3) Application of pre-trained language models to automatic survey coding. Theme (1) studies predictive model assessment with a special focus on probabilistic multinomial classifiers. The outcomes from Theme (1) will contribute to the development of the theory and methodology in assessing prediction uncertainty in supervised classification. In Theme (2), following the recent trend in valuation of large variable annuity portfolios, new efficient data mining frameworks will be designed and examined to mitigate the heavy computational challenge of the problem. Another contribution of my proposed research program, which is the focus of Theme (3), is to offer survey researchers a deeper understanding of recent pre-trained language models and tools for effective survey coding. This research will provide innovative insights for researchers and practitioners in various fields including data mining, insurance/finance and business analytics, and train highly qualified personnel who will be prepared to lead in the related research areas and the high-tech industry.