Earthquake Ground Motion Hazard Predictions Utilizing Geophysical Information

作为美国国家科学基金会先前支持的一项研究的结果，人们对地震重现模型和地面运动预测的一些重要方面进行了评价。该研究计划的目标是研究特定场地的整体非泊松地震危险性模型中的某些方面。这项研究的结果将提供一种统一的方法，能够根据地面运动的地球物理特征并以各种地面运动参数的形式估计未来地震引起的场地地面运动所造成的危险。灾害模型和场地地面运动预测对抗震设计和破坏的影响也在调查中。正在对现有的危险预测模型进行广泛的修改。来自墨西哥、加利福尼亚州和阿拉斯加的地震数据正被用于模型测试和参数估计。正在测试各种模型参数的敏感性，该模型正在三个地点应用。其结果是开发了一个通用的计算机模型，用于特定地点的地震危险性分析。

As a result of a prior NSF-supported study, an appreciation was developed for a number of important aspects of earthquake recurrence modeling and ground motion forecasting. The objective of this research program is to investigate some of these aspects of the overall non-Poissonian seismic hazard model for a particular site. The results of this study will provide a unified approach that will enable estimation of the hazard resulting from future earthquake- induced ground motions at a site, based upon geophysical characterization of the ground motion and in the form of various ground motion parameters. The implications of the hazard model and site ground motion forecasts for earthquake resistant design and damage is also being investigated. Extensive modifications are being made to existing hazard prediction models. Earthquake data from Mexico, California, and Alaska are being used for model testing and parameter estimation. Various model parameters are being tested for sensitivity and the model is being applied to three locations. The result is the development of a generalized computer model for seismic hazard analysis at particular site locations.