Forecasting Elections-The Unified German Elections Market

这笔赠款由探索性研究方案小额赠款供资，用于研究德国的几个选举市场，以便为统一后的德国定于1990年12月2日举行的议会选举做准备。市场将被设计成预测全德国大选的结果。这项研究将对市场和选举的运作产生重要的见解。从市场的角度来看，这将决定市场如何成功地预测一个前所未有的事件，以及在东德的情况下，市场在以非市场经济为条件的文化中如何成功地运作。从选举的角度来看，将调查各种竞选活动和事件对选举结果的影响。东德、西德和美国之间的文化和制度差异为市场和竞选活动的比较分析提供了不同寻常的机会。

This grant, funded under the Small Grants for Exploratory Research Program, will study several elections markets in Germany for the parliamentary elections for a unified Germany, scheduled to take place on December 2, 1990. Markets will be designed to predict the outcome of the all-German election. The research will yield important insights into the operation of both markets and elections. From the standpoint of markets, it will be determined how successfully markets can forecast an unprecedented event and, in the case of East Germany, how successfully markets operate in a culture conditioned on a nonmarket economy. From the standpoint of elections, the impact of various campaign practices and events on the election outcome will be investigated. The cultural and institutional differences among East Germany, West Germany and the United Sates present unusual opportunities for comparative analysis of markets and election campaigns.