Variability of the Climate System

该项目包括一系列数值实验，旨在增加对气候系统内部可变性的了解。为了查明外部强迫产生的气候信号，有必要对内部可变性进行准确的估计。该实验将使用最先进但分辨率相对较低的气候模拟模型。最初实验的主要组成部分是一个大气环流模型(GCM)，它具有一个真实但非交互的生物圈。海洋-大气-生物圈耦合模型将用于调查的以下阶段。这些实验将是1000年量级的数值模式的积分。综合产生的数据将通过各种统计诊断技术进行减少和分析。实验的结果将通过使用在某些方面比以前的工作更好、运行时间更长的模型来促进对内部可变性的了解。该项目是由全球变化研究计划的NSF气候建模、分析和预测倡议资助的。

This project consists of a series of numerical experiments designed to increase understanding of the internal variability of the climate system. It is necessary to have accurate estimates of the internal variability in order to identify climate signals produced by external forcing. The experiment will employ state of the art but relatively low resolution climate simulation models. The main component for the initial experiments is an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with a realistic but non-interactive biosphere. A coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere model will used in the following stages of the investigation. The experiments will be integrations of the numerical models for periods on the order of 1000 years. The data produced by the integrations will be reduced and analyzed by a variety of statistical diagnostic techniques. The result of the experiments will advance knowledge of internal variability by using models that are in some ways better and that are run longer than in previous work. This project is funded under the NSF Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction initiative of the Global Change Research Program.