Dome Deformation and Structural Collapse at Merapi Volcano, Java

这项研究对默拉皮火山未来两年的分布和形变速度进行了系统的评估--在此期间，人们认为有可能发生重大的爆炸性喷发。形变数据将与印度尼西亚火山勘探局获得的常规遥测地震数据相关联地进行解释，预计将提供有关Merapi行为的基本新信息。建筑物在扇形倒塌之前的变形速度的加速，或穹顶在穹顶倒塌和雪崩发生之前的穹顶扩展的速度的加速，应该是可以检测到的，并可能使Voight(1988a)的变形和破坏预测方法的测试成为可能。因此，这项研究将使Merapi成为一个天然的实验室，既可以了解关键的火山变形过程，也可以测试和改进变形监测技术。

This research provides for a systematic evaluation of the distribution and rates of deformation at Merapi volcano over the next two years -- a period during which a significant explosive eruption is considered likely. Deformation data will be interpreted in correlation with conventional telemetered seismic data obtained by the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia, and is expected to provide fundamental new information on Merapi behavior. An acceleration in the rate of edifice deformation preceding sector collapse, or of dome extension preceding dome collapse and generation of nuees ardentes d'avalanche, should be detectable, and may enable tests of the deformation and failure prediction method of Voight (1988a). Thus, this research will enable use of Merapi as a natural laboratory to both understand crucial volcano deformational processes, and to test and refine deformation monitoring techniques.